Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2014-03-06

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-02-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57827 22565 2989 858 132 2 0 0
OW 52 200 526 638 165 17 0 0
VODI 0 255 293 728 501 176 0 0
ODI 0 122 131 546 724 434 15 0
CDI 0 60 123 394 713 918 309 19
VCDI 0 11 42 297 1544 8852 35023 48847
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-03-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57642 21732 3169 912 236 10 0 0
OW 53 224 514 499 158 26 0 0
VODI 0 170 319 678 356 119 4 0
ODI 0 219 161 509 481 275 25 0
CDI 0 132 183 544 815 1009 218 30
VCDI 0 41 116 690 2579 9181 35801 47218
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-03-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57210 22868 3412 1091 238 1 0 0
OW 52 206 396 667 153 13 0 0
VODI 0 262 216 753 368 88 0 0
ODI 0 126 157 607 607 239 0 0
CDI 0 0 37 496 991 723 72 17
VCDI 0 0 0 211 2114 10469 32621 49567
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-03-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57071 22940 2990 1232 358 17 0 0
OW 52 151 499 562 197 53 6 0
VODI 0 100 313 694 302 164 18 0
ODI 0 224 223 684 462 307 35 0
CDI 0 8 64 409 937 813 158 0
VCDI 0 0 18 254 2695 9891 30538 51609
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57071 23056 3324 1657 522 69 16 0
OW 52 73 298 378 156 67 15 0
VODI 0 64 187 495 256 119 26 0
ODI 0 198 182 499 338 186 28 0
CDI 0 23 77 476 772 770 146 0
VCDI 0 9 39 330 2907 10034 30524 51609

Date: 2014-03-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57985 22592 2276 1146 404 59 0 0
OW 52 349 477 529 200 94 0 0
VODI 0 217 330 495 324 192 6 0
ODI 0 174 238 557 353 368 44 0
CDI 0 277 197 504 646 1163 200 0
VCDI 0 5 79 716 2352 8831 33173 49444
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57985 22915 2638 1641 581 142 0 0
OW 52 162 231 279 178 95 3 0
VODI 0 128 216 314 239 144 32 0
ODI 0 131 197 314 285 216 52 0
CDI 0 240 161 447 509 954 190 0
VCDI 0 38 154 952 2487 9156 33146 49444

Date: 2014-03-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59569 21370 2427 1139 342 73 0 0
OW 51 521 617 745 196 54 0 0
VODI 0 212 306 994 397 141 0 0
ODI 0 17 91 500 637 304 80 0
CDI 0 0 27 349 880 1539 354 23
VCDI 0 0 3 160 1441 7493 33363 50633
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59568 21361 2507 1540 602 210 0 0
OW 52 169 201 341 154 110 9 0
VODI 0 147 202 337 267 188 25 0
ODI 0 130 142 282 283 262 46 0
CDI 0 194 115 408 473 824 270 20
VCDI 0 119 304 979 2114 8010 33447 50636

Date: 2014-03-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59762 20155 2356 1304 425 162 0 0
OW 52 230 491 560 212 125 0 0
VODI 0 194 224 823 344 198 23 0
ODI 0 79 115 553 548 332 89 0
CDI 0 22 60 311 1023 1174 405 17
VCDI 0 0 24 184 1511 8990 33895 50076
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59762 20171 2410 1641 648 427 36 0
OW 52 134 249 296 163 118 44 0
VODI 0 120 191 364 326 203 56 0
ODI 0 84 158 267 303 269 126 0
CDI 0 84 112 410 435 902 421 20
VCDI 0 87 150 757 2188 9062 33729 50073

Date: 2014-03-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56661 22350 2982 1064 352 87 0 0
OW 53 250 511 547 175 107 0 0
VODI 0 136 273 712 304 207 7 0
ODI 0 129 85 510 314 403 59 0
CDI 0 72 125 548 662 692 279 21
VCDI 0 1 81 448 2259 8840 32872 51870
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56661 22424 3177 1522 585 289 7 0
OW 53 138 228 305 144 134 24 0
VODI 0 104 201 381 233 205 39 0
ODI 0 66 118 293 179 259 91 0
CDI 0 99 99 345 341 727 405 46
VCDI 0 107 234 983 2584 8722 32651 51845


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