Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2014-02-27

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-02-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56682 22883 3598 1328 119 1 0 0
OW 52 197 489 662 214 14 0 0
VODI 0 82 253 1073 596 58 4 0
ODI 0 8 110 721 863 305 18 0
CDI 0 0 0 168 798 1128 163 0
VCDI 0 0 0 16 535 3198 10194 2570
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-02-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55703 24577 2926 931 120 2 0 0
OW 52 259 596 449 293 26 0 0
VODI 0 166 429 718 419 139 9 0
ODI 0 59 178 680 514 370 37 0
CDI 0 0 26 391 567 570 148 0
VCDI 0 0 0 148 771 3601 10667 2559
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-02-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55810 24279 3436 1228 125 1 0 0
OW 52 187 532 630 182 10 0 0
VODI 0 52 253 1053 464 60 0 0
ODI 0 0 26 503 619 263 25 0
CDI 0 0 3 250 516 804 259 0
VCDI 0 0 2 63 645 2799 10962 3007
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-02-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57370 23370 2838 861 71 4 0 0
OW 52 183 506 601 167 10 0 0
VODI 0 60 264 880 516 70 0 0
ODI 0 0 48 482 837 253 9 0
CDI 0 0 10 301 701 781 151 0
VCDI 0 0 0 68 1035 4211 9470 2920
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57370 23594 3243 1512 272 8 0 0
OW 52 17 262 396 188 29 0 0
VODI 0 2 124 495 312 72 3 0
ODI 0 0 29 392 469 118 19 0
CDI 0 0 8 309 782 362 100 0
VCDI 0 0 0 89 1304 4740 9508 2920

Date: 2014-03-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56662 23873 2447 730 185 2 0 0
OW 52 155 557 524 123 16 0 0
VODI 0 131 302 752 266 122 0 0
ODI 0 23 150 613 522 166 21 0
CDI 0 0 22 613 761 525 89 0
VCDI 0 0 0 490 1369 4426 9464 2947
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56662 24033 2825 1194 285 29 0 0
OW 52 63 320 382 114 42 0 0
VODI 0 85 226 583 211 87 2 0
ODI 0 1 81 505 269 106 21 0
CDI 0 0 25 604 645 272 80 0
VCDI 0 0 1 454 1702 4721 9471 2947

Date: 2014-03-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58159 21888 3244 867 212 3 0 0
OW 52 91 442 773 193 10 0 0
VODI 0 8 104 887 399 73 0 0
ODI 0 0 32 516 657 243 0 0
CDI 0 0 8 246 818 1077 80 0
VCDI 0 0 0 12 844 4934 8022 4206
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58158 21804 3093 1222 353 20 0 0
OW 53 102 298 348 144 44 0 0
VODI 0 57 196 469 248 90 4 0
ODI 0 18 124 401 327 115 23 0
CDI 0 6 77 472 487 402 59 0
VCDI 0 0 42 389 1564 5669 8016 4206

Date: 2014-03-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57310 22037 3717 1183 275 11 0 0
OW 52 109 308 634 227 21 0 0
VODI 0 69 170 658 360 118 4 0
ODI 0 2 44 424 677 232 17 0
CDI 0 0 15 231 934 472 65 0
VCDI 0 0 0 57 1442 5476 7280 4469
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57310 22018 3556 1425 509 67 7 0
OW 52 62 274 345 165 55 10 0
VODI 0 58 186 413 310 107 15 0
ODI 0 49 93 310 336 159 20 0
CDI 0 30 90 382 642 429 39 0
VCDI 0 0 55 312 1953 5513 7275 4469

Date: 2014-03-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59524 20823 2404 1245 402 49 0 0
OW 52 256 480 448 186 79 2 0
VODI 0 136 290 506 286 182 29 0
ODI 0 16 157 585 385 342 57 0
CDI 0 0 52 423 574 796 141 0
VCDI 0 0 23 376 1692 4881 7149 4072
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59524 20726 2450 1630 671 148 15 0
OW 52 172 243 176 200 94 12 0
VODI 0 154 218 248 249 179 39 0
ODI 0 90 135 252 226 233 47 0
CDI 0 40 169 340 414 583 56 0
VCDI 0 49 191 937 1765 5092 7209 4072


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