Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2014-02-27

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-02-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56682 22883 3698 1346 119 1 0 0
OW 52 197 527 679 217 14 0 0
VODI 0 82 310 1091 599 58 4 0
ODI 0 8 181 780 870 305 18 0
CDI 0 0 106 243 825 1147 216 0
VCDI 0 0 92 173 1059 6093 37720 48653
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-02-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55703 24634 2968 940 120 2 0 0
OW 52 293 611 462 295 26 0 0
VODI 0 228 453 726 423 139 9 0
ODI 0 105 208 709 524 400 41 0
CDI 0 54 75 472 592 779 283 1
VCDI 0 28 49 351 1197 8128 41091 43877
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-02-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55810 24368 3490 1254 125 1 0 0
OW 52 264 562 646 182 10 0 0
VODI 0 183 365 1127 469 94 0 0
ODI 0 44 64 586 645 304 25 0
CDI 0 16 13 304 621 994 309 9
VCDI 0 3 22 178 1095 7513 40479 44822
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-02-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57370 23433 2879 895 71 4 0 0
OW 52 228 535 628 168 10 0 0
VODI 0 175 322 915 522 77 0 0
ODI 0 127 117 508 843 304 9 0
CDI 0 55 83 365 743 897 222 22
VCDI 0 12 26 264 1633 8685 36826 47023
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57370 23733 3341 1560 272 8 0 0
OW 52 58 278 430 191 29 0 0
VODI 0 73 162 518 316 80 3 0
ODI 0 86 68 409 475 157 19 0
CDI 0 56 75 349 817 469 176 45
VCDI 0 24 38 309 1909 9234 36859 47000

Date: 2014-03-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56662 23935 2498 740 185 2 0 0
OW 52 192 600 546 126 19 0 0
VODI 0 255 331 779 266 153 0 0
ODI 0 185 194 653 547 224 21 0
CDI 0 122 111 667 870 775 136 0
VCDI 0 34 81 817 2170 9269 35280 47551
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56662 24108 2910 1220 285 29 0 0
OW 52 114 353 402 117 51 0 0
VODI 0 278 263 613 211 126 2 0
ODI 0 76 102 542 307 163 22 0
CDI 0 56 61 647 729 506 120 0
VCDI 0 91 126 778 2515 9567 35293 47551

Date: 2014-03-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58159 22010 3339 868 212 3 0 0
OW 52 162 490 788 193 10 0 0
VODI 0 219 240 952 429 73 0 0
ODI 0 0 59 648 732 249 1 0
CDI 0 0 13 340 1005 1277 163 33
VCDI 0 0 0 133 1519 9411 34198 49068
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58158 21871 3153 1222 353 20 0 0
OW 53 138 336 354 149 44 0 0
VODI 0 86 215 486 262 90 4 0
ODI 0 91 134 426 349 118 24 0
CDI 0 124 137 519 573 615 105 62
VCDI 0 81 166 722 2404 10136 34229 49039

Date: 2014-03-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57310 22127 3785 1187 275 11 0 0
OW 52 192 331 647 227 21 0 0
VODI 0 261 235 684 361 118 4 0
ODI 0 219 154 472 682 241 17 0
CDI 0 10 73 340 1069 728 79 0
VCDI 0 0 1 205 2506 10549 31714 50161
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57310 22095 3622 1435 509 67 7 0
OW 52 93 294 358 165 55 10 0
VODI 0 107 194 430 312 109 15 0
ODI 0 97 98 318 345 167 20 0
CDI 0 187 138 400 730 578 62 15
VCDI 0 230 233 594 3059 10692 31700 50146

Date: 2014-03-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59524 20895 2445 1245 402 49 0 0
OW 52 307 510 458 186 79 2 0
VODI 0 208 321 536 286 182 29 0
ODI 0 289 276 645 390 345 58 0
CDI 0 23 107 572 649 925 180 5
VCDI 0 1 44 482 2626 8979 31132 51604
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59524 20812 2492 1630 671 148 15 0
OW 52 210 267 183 200 94 12 0
VODI 0 192 239 267 249 179 39 0
ODI 0 133 150 264 227 236 47 0
CDI 0 149 205 365 464 687 165 0
VCDI 0 227 350 1229 2728 9215 31123 51609


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