Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2014-02-20

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-02-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56121 24852 3093 858 117 0 0 0
OW 52 608 450 360 136 4 0 0
VODI 0 431 554 636 272 66 0 0
ODI 0 3 95 619 487 137 6 0
CDI 0 0 8 456 959 571 56 0
VCDI 0 0 1 167 1138 4648 7836 3303
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-02-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 54750 25461 3544 1031 85 0 0 0
OW 53 512 358 377 149 12 0 0
VODI 0 523 424 590 298 56 0 0
ODI 0 104 221 567 428 140 17 0
CDI 0 0 24 460 771 495 160 0
VCDI 0 0 1 240 1387 4885 7705 3272
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-02-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59280 22456 3217 882 20 0 0 0
OW 51 316 604 836 182 0 0 0
VODI 0 17 279 1057 554 97 0 0
ODI 0 0 11 403 581 274 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 188 906 777 117 0
VCDI 0 0 0 42 989 4094 7560 3298
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-02-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56986 20185 3867 3585 163 0 0 0
OW 52 111 315 909 221 10 0 0
VODI 0 18 209 1450 412 136 4 0
ODI 0 0 34 905 779 91 19 0
CDI 0 0 0 906 1019 580 99 0
VCDI 0 0 0 608 990 2532 9646 2259
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56986 20279 4129 4312 297 20 0 0
OW 52 27 136 652 148 40 4 0
VODI 0 8 100 911 326 107 14 0
ODI 0 0 57 906 626 77 18 0
CDI 0 0 3 914 940 558 92 0
VCDI 0 0 0 668 1247 2547 9640 2259

Date: 2014-02-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57799 22614 2801 1170 110 0 0 0
OW 52 233 484 520 298 50 0 0
VODI 0 190 251 847 460 165 2 0
ODI 0 48 126 722 640 429 16 0
CDI 0 0 3 279 638 831 109 0
VCDI 0 0 0 42 694 3515 10739 2223
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57799 22899 3166 1707 370 70 0 0
OW 52 76 221 352 200 39 1 0
VODI 0 76 153 518 328 100 5 0
ODI 0 34 100 582 553 229 17 0
CDI 0 0 25 347 563 824 69 0
VCDI 0 0 0 74 826 3728 10774 2223

Date: 2014-02-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57787 22815 3177 1013 107 5 0 0
OW 52 152 487 714 215 15 0 0
VODI 0 11 170 1163 579 69 0 0
ODI 0 0 13 283 752 360 3 0
CDI 0 0 9 156 456 942 193 0
VCDI 0 0 0 68 639 2813 11153 2729
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57787 22711 3193 1523 514 34 0 0
OW 52 86 267 277 172 73 2 0
VODI 0 87 207 384 223 163 11 0
ODI 0 67 108 490 310 249 51 0
CDI 0 27 65 393 477 526 172 0
VCDI 0 0 16 330 1052 3159 11113 2729

Date: 2014-02-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55565 25389 2756 901 33 1 0 0
OW 52 179 620 626 112 10 0 0
VODI 0 85 280 1026 389 43 0 0
ODI 0 0 34 541 758 190 14 0
CDI 0 0 1 279 746 716 143 0
VCDI 0 0 0 77 790 3956 10320 2468
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55565 25313 3072 1371 270 21 0 0
OW 52 119 251 351 142 28 0 0
VODI 0 97 195 487 236 101 3 0
ODI 0 56 89 437 343 137 22 0
CDI 0 37 34 474 622 589 179 0
VCDI 0 31 50 330 1215 4040 10273 2468

Date: 2014-02-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57827 22501 2939 836 132 2 0 0
OW 52 166 489 606 165 17 0 0
VODI 0 118 262 696 493 160 0 0
ODI 0 0 80 519 718 394 15 0
CDI 0 0 9 340 631 743 277 0
VCDI 0 0 0 78 867 4156 9672 3140
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57827 22330 3054 1415 411 119 0 0
OW 52 157 191 309 203 107 0 0
VODI 0 108 187 339 284 222 3 0
ODI 0 73 127 206 341 312 81 0
CDI 0 50 132 320 525 680 443 0
VCDI 0 67 88 486 1242 4032 9437 3140


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