Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2014-02-20

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-02-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56121 24933 3133 862 117 0 0 0
OW 52 637 467 372 136 4 0 0
VODI 0 553 602 654 273 66 0 0
ODI 0 83 156 652 508 141 6 1
CDI 0 3 103 524 970 661 75 15
VCDI 0 0 9 419 1654 8151 34579 49356
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-02-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 54750 25530 3578 1041 85 0 0 0
OW 53 541 373 389 149 12 0 0
VODI 0 591 441 602 302 56 0 0
ODI 0 188 288 585 433 141 17 0
CDI 0 50 101 519 834 533 166 17
VCDI 0 0 82 472 2098 8841 32477 50713
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-02-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59280 22560 3268 899 20 0 0 0
OW 51 352 616 862 186 0 0 0
VODI 0 107 324 1088 557 97 0 0
ODI 0 100 124 451 601 277 12 0
CDI 0 18 59 289 1006 842 161 0
VCDI 0 0 7 211 1471 7817 36121 47214
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-02-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56986 20244 3919 3605 163 0 0 0
OW 52 132 328 925 223 10 0 0
VODI 0 62 218 1471 416 136 4 0
ODI 0 46 63 944 806 91 19 0
CDI 0 59 80 986 1094 611 126 0
VCDI 0 6 39 739 1588 5686 36791 48380
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56986 20343 4181 4334 297 20 0 0
OW 52 52 150 666 151 40 4 0
VODI 0 44 108 929 329 107 14 0
ODI 0 41 82 945 652 77 18 0
CDI 0 55 62 986 1025 589 123 0
VCDI 0 14 64 810 1836 5701 36781 48380

Date: 2014-02-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57799 22659 2864 1185 110 0 0 0
OW 52 254 514 532 298 50 0 0
VODI 0 221 294 857 462 165 2 0
ODI 0 89 162 770 643 435 16 0
CDI 0 48 78 373 665 1023 231 44
VCDI 0 22 63 238 1240 7745 40174 44671
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57799 22954 3244 1725 370 70 0 0
OW 52 99 251 362 201 39 1 0
VODI 0 95 182 528 330 100 5 0
ODI 0 68 136 624 556 233 17 0
CDI 0 42 86 441 600 1007 174 47
VCDI 0 35 76 275 1361 7969 40226 44668

Date: 2014-02-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57787 22959 3244 1037 108 5 0 0
OW 52 225 560 747 218 15 0 0
VODI 0 84 274 1276 597 73 0 0
ODI 0 0 26 350 786 418 3 0
CDI 0 0 22 192 548 1183 213 0
VCDI 0 0 1 134 944 7344 40724 44899
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57787 22770 3239 1548 516 34 0 0
OW 52 115 286 285 176 73 2 0
VODI 0 135 230 391 231 172 11 0
ODI 0 110 129 497 312 306 51 0
CDI 0 61 98 432 486 780 195 3
VCDI 0 77 145 583 1480 7673 40681 44896

Date: 2014-02-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55565 25460 2798 942 33 1 0 0
OW 52 235 640 646 114 10 0 0
VODI 0 252 335 1055 396 68 0 0
ODI 0 130 109 569 772 236 14 0
CDI 0 30 49 334 811 923 166 19
VCDI 0 10 24 236 1283 8755 37963 46013
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55565 25365 3106 1410 270 21 0 0
OW 52 139 268 371 145 28 0 0
VODI 0 143 215 498 242 117 3 0
ODI 0 113 100 445 348 182 22 0
CDI 0 86 45 488 658 760 205 35
VCDI 0 271 221 570 1746 8885 37913 45997

Date: 2014-02-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57827 22565 2989 858 132 2 0 0
OW 52 200 526 638 165 17 0 0
VODI 0 255 293 728 501 176 0 0
ODI 0 122 131 546 724 434 15 0
CDI 0 60 123 394 713 918 309 19
VCDI 0 11 42 297 1544 8852 35023 48847
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57827 22370 3091 1446 411 119 0 0
OW 52 167 209 325 204 107 0 0
VODI 0 132 200 363 290 222 3 0
ODI 0 112 135 224 357 339 86 0
CDI 0 87 143 350 589 881 548 20
VCDI 0 345 326 753 1928 8731 34710 48846


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