Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2014-02-13

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-02-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56428 23951 4096 958 57 0 0 0
OW 52 188 632 541 147 0 0 0
VODI 0 121 382 703 301 30 0 0
ODI 0 55 157 528 507 105 10 0
CDI 0 0 30 482 875 412 59 1
VCDI 0 0 1 369 2666 7865 39328 45011
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-02-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57529 22812 3676 956 221 10 0 0
OW 52 281 581 481 165 29 0 0
VODI 0 52 444 646 301 79 5 0
ODI 0 75 128 532 446 135 47 0
CDI 0 42 102 485 810 472 66 41
VCDI 0 0 8 560 2313 7826 36079 48561
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-02-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57474 24279 3356 1041 70 3 0 0
OW 51 313 499 709 165 2 0 0
VODI 0 174 170 790 399 26 0 0
ODI 0 3 64 448 571 148 9 0
CDI 0 0 20 261 1004 561 153 27
VCDI 0 0 3 332 2416 8414 35707 47386
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-02-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57971 23817 2656 911 91 24 0 0
OW 51 704 504 439 177 3 0 0
VODI 0 493 411 698 363 53 0 0
ODI 0 68 107 535 504 154 3 0
CDI 0 19 67 405 1102 637 74 32
VCDI 0 0 44 312 2106 7642 35098 48773
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57971 24638 3059 1199 187 26 0 0
OW 51 267 315 374 191 16 0 0
VODI 0 121 220 521 323 92 0 0
ODI 0 58 80 446 395 124 6 1
CDI 0 16 52 378 982 517 67 35
VCDI 0 1 63 382 2265 7738 35102 48769

Date: 2014-02-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58101 22344 3493 1002 111 0 0 0
OW 52 603 433 405 111 11 0 0
VODI 0 580 516 643 260 29 3 0
ODI 0 153 270 653 410 76 18 0
CDI 0 31 93 536 886 471 91 13
VCDI 0 0 17 497 2255 8615 32831 50435
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58101 23158 3893 1238 177 5 0 0
OW 52 160 300 373 96 21 0 0
VODI 0 209 286 512 256 36 14 0
ODI 0 144 207 523 329 55 31 0
CDI 0 40 75 455 666 374 60 16
VCDI 0 0 61 635 2509 8711 32838 50432

Date: 2014-02-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59172 22790 3424 1015 75 0 0 0
OW 51 452 604 853 159 0 0 0
VODI 0 84 243 969 697 45 0 0
ODI 0 10 52 403 641 290 2 0
CDI 0 0 9 265 946 1022 145 1
VCDI 0 0 0 145 1188 7985 34724 48587
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59171 22560 3248 1175 232 1 0 0
OW 52 257 306 321 140 16 0 0
VODI 0 253 275 444 221 49 1 0
ODI 0 141 210 415 257 104 37 0
CDI 0 47 139 457 594 539 215 22
VCDI 0 78 154 838 2262 8633 34618 48566

Date: 2014-02-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59091 21676 3281 1324 71 0 0 0
OW 51 60 490 923 194 4 0 0
VODI 0 37 211 1383 775 119 0 0
ODI 0 39 81 388 783 417 10 0
CDI 0 56 95 234 1088 1031 260 0
VCDI 0 0 12 168 1409 7062 37197 47028
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59090 21536 3375 1616 160 2 0 0
OW 52 76 270 532 168 15 0 0
VODI 0 69 166 703 306 46 1 0
ODI 0 54 78 564 446 165 39 0
CDI 0 36 88 406 826 806 241 0
VCDI 0 97 193 599 2414 7599 37186 47028

Date: 2014-02-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56682 22883 3698 1346 119 1 0 0
OW 52 197 527 679 217 14 0 0
VODI 0 82 310 1091 599 58 4 0
ODI 0 8 181 780 870 305 18 0
CDI 0 0 106 243 825 1147 216 0
VCDI 0 0 92 173 1059 6093 37720 48653
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56682 22874 3838 1608 212 33 9 0
OW 52 115 240 428 155 21 12 0
VODI 0 117 193 595 300 60 25 0
ODI 0 45 143 484 385 155 31 0
CDI 0 17 128 555 727 789 191 27
VCDI 0 2 372 642 1910 6560 37690 48626


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