Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2014-02-06

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-01-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59927 20965 3308 1483 269 24 0 0
OW 51 68 500 806 212 7 0 0
VODI 0 21 223 770 491 56 6 0
ODI 0 0 74 458 714 113 15 0
CDI 0 0 20 337 962 608 65 0
VCDI 0 0 6 175 1368 3250 7728 4020
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-02-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57255 23284 3638 1197 254 1 0 0
OW 51 72 526 730 220 51 0 0
VODI 0 28 204 816 384 113 22 0
ODI 0 0 75 473 620 158 58 0
CDI 0 0 23 306 854 644 32 0
VCDI 0 0 11 146 992 4076 7629 4157
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-02-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56333 24577 3776 1092 99 12 0 0
OW 51 49 527 762 161 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 175 804 444 21 0 0
ODI 0 0 6 446 601 136 4 0
CDI 0 0 1 177 912 632 104 0
VCDI 0 0 0 71 1166 4234 7848 3875
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-02-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58028 23121 3489 740 49 0 0 0
OW 52 113 546 642 135 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 264 803 305 11 0 0
ODI 0 0 24 554 533 87 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 346 905 377 17 0
VCDI 0 0 0 65 1898 3788 8742 3463
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58028 23218 3884 1335 193 15 1 0
OW 52 18 252 399 109 30 3 0
VODI 0 1 173 529 256 31 4 0
ODI 0 0 14 436 404 63 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 334 793 294 11 0
VCDI 0 0 0 117 2070 3830 8736 3463

Date: 2014-02-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56597 24548 2958 1062 107 0 0 0
OW 52 145 632 537 177 8 0 0
VODI 0 17 352 676 323 44 3 0
ODI 0 0 98 479 502 113 28 0
CDI 0 0 17 446 828 302 36 0
VCDI 0 0 18 200 2058 3786 8032 3919
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56597 24681 3427 1552 299 36 3 0
OW 52 29 293 321 133 30 9 0
VODI 0 0 236 397 233 43 27 0
ODI 0 0 74 352 366 67 16 0
CDI 0 0 19 411 716 205 14 0
VCDI 0 0 26 367 2248 3872 8030 3919

Date: 2014-02-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58431 22754 3842 877 56 10 0 0
OW 51 245 544 690 132 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 113 795 366 15 0 0
ODI 0 0 4 418 589 139 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 212 942 522 64 0
VCDI 0 0 0 41 1702 4149 7372 4024
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58430 22790 3677 1016 243 39 5 0
OW 52 146 267 278 105 37 3 0
VODI 0 60 287 361 162 64 9 0
ODI 0 4 156 374 233 51 40 0
CDI 0 0 76 383 652 236 28 0
VCDI 0 0 40 621 2392 4408 7351 4024

Date: 2014-02-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59934 22080 2832 839 87 16 0 0
OW 51 544 470 612 141 0 0 0
VODI 0 49 227 724 389 19 0 0
ODI 0 0 18 462 527 150 1 0
CDI 0 0 10 273 1007 531 55 0
VCDI 0 0 5 80 1297 4347 7525 3798
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59933 22372 2729 1009 230 27 2 0
OW 52 125 240 236 117 26 10 0
VODI 0 93 217 366 180 75 10 0
ODI 0 40 116 351 219 69 14 0
CDI 0 21 87 348 558 208 49 0
VCDI 0 22 173 680 2144 4658 7496 3798

Date: 2014-02-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56121 24852 3093 858 117 0 0 0
OW 52 608 450 360 136 4 0 0
VODI 0 431 554 636 272 66 0 0
ODI 0 3 95 619 487 137 6 0
CDI 0 0 8 456 959 571 56 0
VCDI 0 0 1 167 1138 4648 7836 3303
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56121 25562 3222 1073 245 19 9 0
OW 52 133 228 235 108 33 8 0
VODI 0 107 238 314 201 79 30 0
ODI 0 53 157 292 232 84 20 0
CDI 0 18 129 329 573 271 27 0
VCDI 0 21 227 853 1750 4940 7804 3303


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