Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2014-02-06

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-01-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59927 21015 3332 1491 269 24 0 0
OW 51 84 529 823 213 81 0 0
VODI 0 47 246 801 491 106 29 0
ODI 0 111 118 477 715 162 38 0
CDI 0 6 84 381 977 901 157 17
VCDI 0 0 15 352 1881 6501 37573 47023
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-02-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57255 23323 3668 1212 254 1 0 0
OW 51 87 539 759 221 51 0 0
VODI 0 54 223 848 391 212 79 0
ODI 0 39 97 496 633 221 121 0
CDI 0 64 103 377 881 1026 181 6
VCDI 0 0 29 295 1520 8265 34705 48761
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-02-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56333 24632 3828 1103 99 12 0 0
OW 51 100 582 779 161 0 0 0
VODI 0 61 278 880 454 21 0 0
ODI 0 0 8 512 613 180 14 0
CDI 0 0 1 236 1014 968 170 14
VCDI 0 0 0 193 1664 8673 36874 46540
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-02-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58028 23221 3511 740 49 0 0 0
OW 52 151 580 642 135 0 0 0
VODI 0 111 371 816 305 11 0 0
ODI 0 12 68 605 544 152 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 430 982 666 70 5
VCDI 0 0 0 261 2418 8410 39782 43920
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58028 23375 3929 1335 193 15 1 0
OW 52 62 305 401 109 30 3 0
VODI 0 58 259 548 256 34 4 0
ODI 0 0 37 469 417 129 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 409 854 589 70 7
VCDI 0 0 0 332 2604 8442 39770 43918

Date: 2014-02-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56597 24607 3006 1063 107 0 0 0
OW 52 157 664 541 177 8 0 0
VODI 0 47 392 707 323 44 3 0
ODI 0 89 159 488 507 114 28 0
CDI 0 2 57 523 881 448 54 2
VCDI 0 0 18 404 2565 7858 36396 47960
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56597 24751 3493 1557 299 36 3 0
OW 52 37 318 331 133 30 9 0
VODI 0 22 265 420 233 43 27 0
ODI 0 92 151 363 376 68 16 0
CDI 0 0 43 480 771 370 34 3
VCDI 0 0 26 575 2748 7925 36392 47959

Date: 2014-02-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58431 22857 3894 886 56 10 0 0
OW 51 324 570 707 132 0 0 0
VODI 0 85 202 858 366 15 0 0
ODI 0 0 26 460 596 141 0 0
CDI 0 0 9 295 990 623 136 43
VCDI 0 0 0 239 2233 7850 34632 49331
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58430 22867 3721 1022 243 39 5 0
OW 52 168 280 288 105 37 3 0
VODI 0 87 305 378 162 64 9 0
ODI 0 49 170 416 235 53 41 0
CDI 0 88 99 411 675 357 128 56
VCDI 0 7 126 930 2953 8089 34582 49318

Date: 2014-02-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59934 22210 2870 841 87 16 0 0
OW 51 630 492 618 141 0 0 0
VODI 0 227 268 741 389 19 0 0
ODI 0 22 67 490 548 153 1 0
CDI 0 9 45 312 1065 622 120 15
VCDI 0 0 28 275 2003 8883 36680 46176
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59933 22542 2776 1010 230 27 2 0
OW 52 160 255 241 117 26 10 0
VODI 0 132 236 371 180 75 10 0
ODI 0 80 134 383 226 76 15 0
CDI 0 63 94 368 595 363 135 27
VCDI 0 121 275 904 2885 9126 36629 46164

Date: 2014-02-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56121 24933 3133 862 117 0 0 0
OW 52 637 467 372 136 4 0 0
VODI 0 553 602 654 273 66 0 0
ODI 0 83 156 652 508 141 6 1
CDI 0 3 103 524 970 661 75 15
VCDI 0 0 9 419 1654 8151 34579 49356
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56121 25707 3298 1091 245 19 9 0
OW 52 171 243 247 108 33 8 0
VODI 0 153 256 324 202 79 30 0
ODI 0 72 171 312 244 84 20 0
CDI 0 41 146 368 600 349 31 0
VCDI 0 65 356 1141 2259 8459 34562 49372


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