Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2014-01-30

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-01-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59721 22319 2615 1066 254 32 0 0
OW 51 85 552 662 181 29 0 0
VODI 0 12 299 622 443 131 2 0
ODI 0 28 119 388 515 186 39 0
CDI 0 59 35 313 669 777 72 10
VCDI 0 93 89 464 1816 10252 36307 45741
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-01-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60790 20493 2975 1187 183 68 0 0
OW 52 266 483 631 204 19 4 0
VODI 0 68 324 731 375 150 62 0
ODI 0 13 150 417 543 123 62 0
CDI 0 34 97 307 923 654 102 3
VCDI 0 116 159 522 1543 8498 35542 48175
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-01-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58197 22659 4659 1043 107 42 3 0
OW 51 74 480 941 171 18 0 0
VODI 0 45 192 863 433 109 7 0
ODI 0 81 105 408 748 213 41 0
CDI 0 0 0 340 1004 1009 222 10
VCDI 0 0 0 129 1133 7817 32610 51084
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-01-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59452 21829 3347 1340 205 0 0 0
OW 51 95 620 728 215 43 6 0
VODI 0 36 225 929 405 104 35 0
ODI 0 101 140 436 692 178 67 0
CDI 0 0 50 325 1101 835 308 0
VCDI 0 0 5 242 1682 6998 38257 45966
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59452 21908 3772 1918 372 95 12 0
OW 51 33 268 509 199 76 24 0
VODI 0 20 155 578 345 78 56 0
ODI 0 100 115 382 565 104 57 0
CDI 0 0 65 279 1012 801 248 0
VCDI 0 0 12 334 1807 7004 38276 45966

Date: 2014-02-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57019 23780 3494 1330 335 8 0 0
OW 51 89 526 766 242 85 9 0
VODI 0 65 213 856 467 126 25 0
ODI 0 69 114 427 793 168 80 0
CDI 0 55 80 350 991 937 171 0
VCDI 0 0 31 324 1424 7106 35024 49418
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57019 23878 3882 2003 583 126 15 0
OW 51 28 220 447 205 87 39 0
VODI 0 24 136 532 360 78 49 0
ODI 0 39 86 307 596 105 31 0
CDI 0 77 69 327 930 859 177 2
VCDI 0 12 65 437 1578 7175 34998 49416

Date: 2014-02-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55463 25021 4502 1114 121 7 0 0
OW 51 107 556 895 193 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 123 1010 497 52 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 375 802 256 22 0
CDI 0 0 0 172 1113 1406 222 7
VCDI 0 0 0 155 1286 7423 33197 50894
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55463 24974 4425 1683 441 110 17 0
OW 51 34 254 396 182 53 34 0
VODI 0 21 239 435 326 142 142 0
ODI 0 21 99 328 338 158 82 0
CDI 0 52 77 375 672 730 216 50
VCDI 0 31 88 504 2053 7951 32950 50851

Date: 2014-02-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57260 23387 4012 938 87 8 0 0
OW 51 108 587 729 136 0 0 0
VODI 0 67 349 868 367 19 0 0
ODI 0 0 49 590 609 147 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 329 1098 728 108 3
VCDI 0 0 0 176 2227 8770 36485 46754
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57259 23407 4203 1534 370 43 3 0
OW 52 48 283 376 152 27 13 0
VODI 0 24 230 474 280 77 18 0
ODI 0 15 101 338 324 269 65 0
CDI 0 31 55 355 664 505 194 19
VCDI 0 37 125 553 2734 8751 36302 46738

Date: 2014-02-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56428 23951 4096 958 57 0 0 0
OW 52 188 632 541 147 0 0 0
VODI 0 121 382 703 301 30 0 0
ODI 0 55 157 528 507 105 10 0
CDI 0 0 30 482 875 412 59 1
VCDI 0 0 1 369 2666 7865 39328 45011
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56428 23984 4291 1491 405 44 5 0
OW 52 106 301 305 149 36 7 0
VODI 0 57 297 344 257 81 10 0
ODI 0 38 191 227 268 120 14 0
CDI 0 39 84 370 510 656 260 6
VCDI 0 91 134 844 2964 7475 39101 45006


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