Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2014-01-23

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-01-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60399 21026 3117 1346 145 23 0 0
OW 51 103 420 772 221 26 0 0
VODI 0 48 251 778 442 74 1 0
ODI 0 82 60 420 554 287 40 0
CDI 0 50 79 296 916 1100 174 4
VCDI 0 0 32 254 1114 8202 34641 49500
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-01-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59755 21503 2972 1398 102 0 0 0
OW 51 142 442 788 189 13 0 0
VODI 0 65 272 736 410 78 0 0
ODI 0 47 89 406 626 252 11 0
CDI 0 68 83 345 796 1017 135 4
VCDI 0 1 59 376 1369 9579 37065 45804
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-01-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57628 23329 3866 1217 58 34 0 0
OW 51 92 456 771 134 5 0 0
VODI 0 66 192 793 443 13 0 0
ODI 0 42 49 398 703 89 5 0
CDI 0 113 65 243 926 829 165 3
VCDI 0 0 36 273 1412 9106 37146 46297
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-01-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58341 22552 4003 1004 147 40 0 0
OW 51 67 549 679 133 15 0 0
VODI 0 21 244 775 410 69 12 0
ODI 0 14 126 413 528 126 52 0
CDI 0 38 42 304 912 544 120 7
VCDI 0 51 104 380 1559 8861 36655 47100
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58341 22583 4382 1469 307 53 0 0
OW 51 44 265 465 165 30 2 0
VODI 0 15 169 558 333 88 21 0
ODI 0 12 86 340 384 123 61 0
CDI 0 29 38 268 778 538 107 11
VCDI 0 60 128 455 1722 8823 36648 47096

Date: 2014-01-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60115 21651 2534 1203 232 51 0 0
OW 52 224 453 623 243 30 0 0
VODI 0 65 328 575 441 174 16 0
ODI 0 24 158 334 527 205 62 0
CDI 0 57 66 375 573 841 130 0
VCDI 0 136 133 453 1522 9625 36303 46514
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60116 21788 2845 1685 437 82 0 0
OW 51 104 240 378 200 65 3 0
VODI 0 42 240 379 325 169 27 0
ODI 0 28 121 282 365 188 54 0
CDI 0 43 72 300 561 666 133 0
VCDI 0 152 154 539 1650 9756 36294 46514

Date: 2014-01-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59767 22018 3429 1150 129 53 0 0
OW 51 81 572 1003 150 11 0 0
VODI 0 162 216 977 497 66 0 0
ODI 0 0 34 392 873 190 20 0
CDI 0 0 9 281 1143 910 159 0
VCDI 0 0 0 138 1199 7833 34452 49083
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59767 21896 3356 1653 356 115 9 0
OW 51 125 298 418 176 83 28 0
VODI 0 48 213 499 286 135 33 0
ODI 0 16 120 372 433 133 31 0
CDI 0 23 97 365 834 623 168 10
VCDI 0 153 176 634 1906 7974 34362 49073

Date: 2014-01-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59661 22062 3426 1124 117 7 0 0
OW 51 103 553 832 175 40 2 0
VODI 0 35 181 998 331 108 38 0
ODI 0 116 116 511 618 128 80 0
CDI 0 0 26 363 1198 651 398 24
VCDI 0 0 5 239 1544 7051 34903 49233
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59661 22040 3309 1508 346 75 34 0
OW 51 75 373 351 141 53 52 0
VODI 0 49 279 566 237 114 72 0
ODI 0 18 105 462 457 125 51 0
CDI 0 23 68 565 919 585 419 23
VCDI 0 111 173 615 1883 7033 34793 49234

Date: 2014-01-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59927 21015 3332 1491 269 24 0 0
OW 51 84 529 823 213 81 0 0
VODI 0 47 246 801 491 106 29 0
ODI 0 111 118 477 715 162 38 0
CDI 0 6 84 381 977 901 157 17
VCDI 0 0 15 352 1881 6501 37573 47023
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59926 20850 3207 1864 502 50 1 0
OW 52 126 220 364 174 39 11 0
VODI 0 76 239 433 318 153 29 0
ODI 0 33 168 358 502 106 45 0
CDI 0 31 138 427 826 377 375 110
VCDI 0 147 352 879 2224 7050 37336 46930


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