Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2014-01-16

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2014-01-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60617 21636 2987 1236 157 3 0 0
OW 63 179 515 578 235 27 0 0
VODI 0 93 391 625 444 80 11 0
ODI 0 32 199 413 701 181 57 0
CDI 0 51 106 446 1183 991 326 20
VCDI 0 139 94 322 1535 8467 30156 51752
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-01-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61177 20063 3474 1244 277 15 0 0
OW 51 188 583 630 216 43 3 0
VODI 0 96 384 594 420 119 29 0
ODI 0 37 164 436 475 199 37 0
CDI 0 42 58 495 1039 939 178 18
VCDI 0 119 125 326 1415 7745 31714 51881
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-01-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62212 20462 2840 1172 151 2 0 0
OW 63 102 431 857 231 16 0 0
VODI 0 133 282 707 510 96 3 0
ODI 0 0 43 414 658 253 25 0
CDI 0 0 17 175 852 1141 190 28
VCDI 0 0 8 207 982 7279 35612 48894
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-01-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59733 21255 3623 1407 149 21 0 0
OW 51 103 407 822 233 26 0 0
VODI 0 48 239 739 483 101 0 0
ODI 0 121 51 398 670 348 19 0
CDI 0 30 70 255 949 1008 238 5
VCDI 0 0 16 245 1100 7635 34622 49828
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59720 21293 3864 1930 353 54 0 0
OW 64 67 233 510 206 38 0 0
VODI 0 47 165 543 345 99 1 0
ODI 0 120 53 377 577 286 16 0
CDI 0 30 58 227 929 1027 245 5
VCDI 0 0 33 279 1174 7635 34617 49828

Date: 2014-01-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62017 19626 2809 1339 165 11 0 0
OW 51 152 413 729 202 15 0 0
VODI 0 68 269 741 426 77 0 0
ODI 0 60 97 425 556 219 25 0
CDI 0 62 67 349 892 1007 147 0
VCDI 0 0 43 289 1189 9527 35792 47192
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62017 19695 3046 1814 327 22 0 0
OW 51 103 260 435 179 30 0 0
VODI 0 38 193 534 307 77 2 0
ODI 0 54 74 422 403 182 21 0
CDI 0 65 58 342 847 943 204 0
VCDI 0 13 67 325 1367 9602 35737 47192

Date: 2014-01-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61399 19423 3952 1320 89 3 0 0
OW 51 67 425 895 180 1 0 0
VODI 0 112 165 750 551 25 0 0
ODI 0 36 78 296 789 150 2 0
CDI 0 0 18 194 735 1266 175 5
VCDI 0 0 2 271 973 9205 38281 45164
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61398 19339 3822 1800 369 10 0 0
OW 52 61 283 375 204 37 0 0
VODI 0 39 234 380 342 97 3 0
ODI 0 48 90 313 381 148 36 0
CDI 0 56 61 342 620 829 211 6
VCDI 0 95 150 516 1401 9529 38208 45163

Date: 2014-01-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59722 21067 3996 1106 132 35 0 0
OW 51 68 542 636 154 4 0 0
VODI 0 29 284 773 389 27 2 0
ODI 0 35 89 416 655 92 27 0
CDI 0 48 29 331 948 710 156 1
VCDI 0 64 78 383 1613 9405 35829 47122
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59721 20989 3963 1581 450 43 0 0
OW 52 98 337 286 178 36 0 0
VODI 0 58 286 379 280 85 54 0
ODI 0 13 159 307 432 113 65 0
CDI 0 24 103 403 690 470 127 2
VCDI 0 129 170 689 1861 9526 35768 47121

Date: 2014-01-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59721 22319 2615 1066 254 32 0 0
OW 51 85 552 662 181 29 0 0
VODI 0 12 299 622 443 131 2 0
ODI 0 28 119 388 515 186 39 0
CDI 0 59 35 313 669 777 72 10
VCDI 0 93 89 464 1816 10252 36307 45741
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59720 22157 2651 1402 455 66 0 0
OW 52 107 272 320 195 69 36 0
VODI 0 87 218 351 292 139 38 0
ODI 0 52 127 292 320 313 45 0
CDI 0 36 164 268 642 728 87 11
VCDI 0 157 277 882 1974 10092 36214 45740


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