Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2014-01-02

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2013-12-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65551 18291 2451 1152 83 7 0 0
OW 67 447 362 500 214 34 0 0
VODI 0 323 201 541 408 58 15 0
ODI 0 43 45 306 529 79 43 0
CDI 0 70 42 161 639 337 209 0
VCDI 0 36 95 203 978 3487 7344 3749
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2013-12-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64609 19142 2571 621 43 6 0 0
OW 65 359 454 596 84 11 0 0
VODI 0 344 218 650 248 50 0 0
ODI 0 148 52 392 422 65 14 0
CDI 0 60 43 237 596 277 97 0
VCDI 0 59 162 270 1096 4037 6905 4097
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2013-12-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64497 19755 2344 916 79 15 0 0
OW 63 172 344 585 202 20 1 0
VODI 0 77 204 612 413 43 7 0
ODI 0 23 80 223 536 107 16 0
CDI 0 5 94 181 537 468 74 0
VCDI 0 0 31 185 663 3511 7321 4696
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-01-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61905 21499 2775 721 49 15 4 0
OW 63 241 448 667 117 15 6 0
VODI 0 86 183 617 330 72 16 0
ODI 0 48 96 341 442 69 20 0
CDI 0 4 144 216 688 290 65 0
VCDI 0 0 47 302 1140 3458 7400 4501
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61905 21689 3033 1015 123 24 6 0
OW 63 73 237 485 110 24 4 0
VODI 0 78 162 497 267 78 16 0
ODI 0 32 78 326 376 55 23 0
CDI 0 6 116 214 607 251 49 0
VCDI 0 0 67 327 1283 3487 7413 4501

Date: 2014-01-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61387 21127 3535 814 103 7 0 0
OW 63 370 508 472 146 32 0 0
VODI 0 146 276 571 282 105 8 0
ODI 0 80 104 319 294 175 24 0
CDI 0 42 134 199 549 389 103 0
VCDI 0 0 164 372 1065 3911 6575 4649
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61387 21390 3860 1040 155 23 0 0
OW 63 167 261 329 135 35 1 0
VODI 0 97 186 464 189 73 7 0
ODI 0 63 100 282 235 109 23 0
CDI 0 43 105 192 522 311 68 0
VCDI 0 5 209 440 1203 4068 6611 4649

Date: 2014-01-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62474 20991 3010 1074 122 0 0 0
OW 62 152 370 657 159 3 0 0
VODI 0 123 152 679 402 68 2 0
ODI 0 51 129 263 478 208 16 0
CDI 0 7 104 235 529 540 112 0
VCDI 0 0 9 70 539 3729 7317 4264
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62473 20822 2927 1257 273 12 0 0
OW 63 167 224 309 130 48 9 0
VODI 0 119 183 419 218 110 21 0
ODI 0 78 121 268 216 185 50 0
CDI 0 70 96 265 320 322 127 0
VCDI 0 68 223 460 1072 3871 7240 4264

Date: 2014-01-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57908 24781 3464 902 48 4 0 0
OW 63 200 505 589 143 9 0 0
VODI 0 125 262 705 384 65 0 0
ODI 0 34 146 460 582 213 57 0
CDI 0 17 143 293 613 314 212 0
VCDI 0 0 41 206 680 2834 8172 3926
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57908 24569 3485 1149 183 52 2 0
OW 63 195 334 343 138 50 27 0
VODI 0 138 227 491 265 53 36 0
ODI 0 87 149 378 464 74 73 0
CDI 0 84 154 333 493 248 146 0
VCDI 0 84 212 461 907 2962 8157 3926

Date: 2014-01-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60617 21585 2951 1235 157 3 0 0
OW 63 164 471 577 235 27 0 0
VODI 0 67 360 622 444 80 11 0
ODI 0 5 177 408 678 124 56 0
CDI 0 0 98 444 1025 675 144 0
VCDI 0 0 13 185 952 3165 7529 3753
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60629 21406 2985 1480 293 22 4 0
OW 51 166 232 386 177 22 6 0
VODI 0 124 248 440 344 49 7 0
ODI 0 75 192 263 464 74 10 0
CDI 0 45 199 272 828 320 80 0
VCDI 0 5 214 630 1385 3587 7633 3753


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