Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2014-01-02

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2013-12-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65551 18411 2463 1154 83 7 0 0
OW 67 526 372 510 214 34 0 0
VODI 0 392 210 555 409 58 15 0
ODI 0 89 53 331 541 80 43 0
CDI 0 125 75 188 698 479 265 13
VCDI 0 83 181 437 1413 8441 34829 47653
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2013-12-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64609 19227 2590 621 43 6 0 0
OW 65 396 475 599 84 11 0 0
VODI 0 410 241 653 253 53 0 0
ODI 0 187 59 397 430 85 14 0
CDI 0 112 50 245 679 420 103 31
VCDI 0 147 262 480 1554 9669 32305 49483
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2013-12-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64497 19871 2384 916 79 15 0 0
OW 63 208 368 588 202 20 1 0
VODI 0 118 224 616 413 43 7 0
ODI 0 107 85 226 547 108 20 0
CDI 0 74 175 277 693 557 148 11
VCDI 0 0 31 262 1300 8458 31906 51430
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2014-01-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61905 21557 2834 729 49 15 4 0
OW 63 259 470 674 117 15 6 0
VODI 0 124 208 628 331 72 16 0
ODI 0 75 103 347 449 70 20 0
CDI 0 66 184 252 805 479 103 16
VCDI 0 18 87 412 1816 9732 28526 53412
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61905 21751 3101 1023 123 24 6 0
OW 63 91 252 492 110 24 4 0
VODI 0 106 183 507 268 78 16 0
ODI 0 57 85 333 383 58 23 0
CDI 0 61 157 253 731 456 81 23
VCDI 0 33 108 434 1952 9743 28545 53405

Date: 2014-01-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61387 21220 3575 816 103 7 0 0
OW 63 398 519 475 146 32 0 0
VODI 0 187 294 579 282 108 8 0
ODI 0 108 115 326 308 192 24 0
CDI 0 92 163 233 648 518 158 5
VCDI 0 57 217 520 1770 8611 30624 52160
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61387 21490 3904 1042 155 23 0 0
OW 63 197 273 333 135 35 1 0
VODI 0 126 202 472 189 75 7 0
ODI 0 83 109 289 242 123 24 0
CDI 0 71 133 226 613 429 129 0
VCDI 0 95 262 587 1923 8783 30653 52165

Date: 2014-01-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62474 21161 3042 1075 122 0 0 0
OW 62 219 375 660 159 3 0 0
VODI 0 207 202 691 402 68 2 0
ODI 0 109 175 311 485 235 16 0
CDI 0 14 114 281 660 715 158 7
VCDI 0 0 9 169 1187 8801 30593 52085
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62473 20930 2950 1257 273 12 0 0
OW 63 195 229 310 130 48 9 0
VODI 0 153 188 422 218 116 21 0
ODI 0 108 125 271 231 199 67 0
CDI 0 100 102 275 430 490 204 1
VCDI 0 224 323 652 1733 8957 30468 52091

Date: 2014-01-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57908 24889 3485 902 48 4 0 0
OW 63 237 525 590 143 9 0 0
VODI 0 175 290 705 384 65 0 0
ODI 0 85 156 482 621 226 57 0
CDI 0 147 157 315 822 631 238 1
VCDI 0 60 114 399 1892 12006 31156 47061
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57908 24657 3499 1149 183 52 2 0
OW 63 224 352 343 138 50 27 0
VODI 0 162 249 491 265 74 38 0
ODI 0 106 162 378 482 104 87 0
CDI 0 108 162 348 696 543 202 23
VCDI 0 336 303 684 2146 12118 31095 47039

Date: 2014-01-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60617 21636 2987 1236 157 3 0 0
OW 63 179 515 578 235 27 0 0
VODI 0 93 391 625 444 80 11 0
ODI 0 32 199 413 701 181 57 0
CDI 0 51 106 446 1183 991 326 20
VCDI 0 139 94 322 1535 8467 30156 51752
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60629 21455 3020 1481 293 22 4 0
OW 51 177 256 387 177 22 6 0
VODI 0 139 282 441 347 50 11 0
ODI 0 92 212 266 488 97 32 0
CDI 0 65 209 274 906 551 210 5
VCDI 0 202 313 771 2044 9007 30287 51767


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