Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2024-01-18

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2024-01-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70717 15283 354 482 228 91 92 0
OW 60 513 126 192 184 74 10 0
VODI 0 208 135 224 257 184 42 0
ODI 0 56 49 230 257 243 49 0
CDI 0 20 22 180 542 648 157 6
VCDI 0 14 24 153 1191 6176 36468 51107
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-01-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68116 16935 634 494 254 96 91 0
OW 63 730 148 267 128 70 18 0
VODI 0 300 111 251 202 197 47 0
ODI 0 106 87 173 242 202 82 0
CDI 0 45 57 236 611 610 165 3
VCDI 0 44 48 411 1549 8335 34595 50295
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-01-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69471 16064 463 512 257 156 28 0
OW 61 452 179 304 177 46 1 0
VODI 0 225 84 335 296 157 13 0
ODI 0 106 45 206 338 203 52 0
CDI 0 72 49 175 517 838 120 8
VCDI 0 32 63 426 1250 8322 33980 50965
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-01-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70804 14565 317 397 226 138 41 0
OW 61 711 135 211 103 50 7 0
VODI 0 397 127 271 201 107 32 0
ODI 0 182 68 196 233 155 48 0
CDI 0 167 56 170 426 552 166 0
VCDI 0 150 105 400 1527 7902 35233 50411
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70804 14551 323 437 241 145 42 0
OW 61 719 139 172 98 39 6 0
VODI 0 402 129 296 187 116 34 0
ODI 0 174 56 181 268 159 44 0
CDI 0 160 55 166 440 541 178 0
VCDI 0 166 106 393 1482 7904 35223 50411

Date: 2024-01-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69086 16166 351 374 207 142 54 0
OW 61 593 130 266 107 70 15 0
VODI 0 352 94 316 183 117 18 0
ODI 0 166 73 135 242 189 74 0
CDI 0 131 39 157 353 641 292 16
VCDI 0 274 83 278 926 6340 38269 49668
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69086 16175 359 415 222 158 55 0
OW 61 564 132 253 104 60 16 0
VODI 0 345 75 283 188 114 20 0
ODI 0 163 83 156 229 190 69 0
CDI 0 122 36 149 359 622 284 20
VCDI 0 313 85 270 916 6355 38278 49664

Date: 2024-01-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69731 15236 353 420 209 192 61 0
OW 61 614 170 321 160 60 14 0
VODI 0 226 104 372 320 146 40 0
ODI 0 118 28 179 319 207 75 0
CDI 0 116 33 110 308 937 307 0
VCDI 0 85 55 201 497 4596 34779 55288
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69731 14775 381 476 274 259 84 0
OW 61 547 138 295 146 96 45 0
VODI 0 321 62 310 304 133 81 0
ODI 0 180 43 145 209 207 76 0
CDI 0 157 25 90 207 619 289 0
VCDI 0 415 94 287 673 4824 34701 55288

Date: 2024-01-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65738 18543 652 440 217 158 47 0
OW 61 610 129 294 136 48 6 0
VODI 0 379 106 332 355 95 31 0
ODI 0 198 43 145 357 215 42 0
CDI 0 149 39 155 404 507 208 7
VCDI 0 84 59 187 679 4791 31513 58889
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65738 18111 621 420 282 221 62 0
OW 61 594 122 269 108 85 31 0
VODI 0 451 113 287 350 142 37 0
ODI 0 225 42 143 366 243 31 0
CDI 0 194 46 144 346 463 209 60
VCDI 0 388 84 290 696 4660 31477 58836

Date: 2024-01-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67493 16881 409 541 187 114 62 0
OW 61 620 98 322 158 47 18 0
VODI 0 394 91 270 382 148 20 0
ODI 0 257 45 161 353 198 64 0
CDI 0 240 59 117 411 468 178 5
VCDI 0 252 112 332 679 6015 35145 53641
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67493 16385 370 573 270 177 73 0
OW 61 629 100 260 172 91 41 0
VODI 0 443 104 232 325 129 56 0
ODI 0 253 50 198 334 227 67 0
CDI 0 289 21 93 324 509 155 9
VCDI 0 645 169 387 745 5857 35095 53637


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