Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2023-11-16

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-11-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9678 2379 138 234 98 63 0 0
OW 138 669 185 359 180 93 0 0
VODI 33 284 173 357 448 189 5 0
ODI 5 113 81 192 276 390 7 0
CDI 0 9 20 87 244 295 26 0
VCDI 0 0 1 17 245 2567 6451 19137
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-11-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9143 2341 48 131 43 0 0 0
OW 138 535 153 357 384 71 1 0
VODI 38 350 70 329 615 165 1 0
ODI 13 150 41 216 401 351 8 0
CDI 0 33 25 133 285 494 14 0
VCDI 0 10 6 22 257 2481 6913 19100
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-11-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8981 3120 68 89 20 0 0 0
OW 77 257 105 303 129 0 0 0
VODI 21 104 90 283 497 114 1 0
ODI 7 4 13 227 800 394 1 0
CDI 0 0 1 49 501 842 26 0
VCDI 0 0 0 11 264 4364 10967 13136
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-11-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8366 2830 123 232 75 0 0 0
OW 99 130 57 195 200 4 0 0
VODI 14 56 23 303 563 124 4 0
ODI 7 12 8 91 701 418 48 0
CDI 1 2 5 52 543 964 35 14
VCDI 0 2 3 16 275 3247 8898 17126
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8393 2839 122 227 73 0 0 0
OW 75 128 60 225 251 10 0 0
VODI 12 51 19 267 629 156 23 0
ODI 7 11 9 97 653 507 31 0
CDI 0 0 6 52 467 942 28 12
VCDI 0 3 3 21 284 3142 8903 17128

Date: 2023-11-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7341 3408 96 130 46 2 0 0
OW 49 247 35 108 258 107 7 0
VODI 6 120 29 193 536 232 16 0
ODI 3 16 13 64 452 324 64 0
CDI 0 18 7 47 374 777 333 0
VCDI 0 10 5 29 379 2378 8709 18898
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7353 3405 88 137 103 26 0 0
OW 38 248 36 92 232 97 5 0
VODI 8 121 33 187 598 235 40 0
ODI 0 15 14 79 423 360 69 0
CDI 0 21 10 38 303 827 276 1
VCDI 0 9 4 38 386 2275 8739 18897

Date: 2023-11-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7199 3633 58 62 12 4 0 0
OW 22 191 65 114 15 2 0 0
VODI 6 48 34 234 277 37 0 0
ODI 0 3 7 79 629 291 41 0
CDI 0 1 6 25 264 1314 291 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 118 1961 9073 19747
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7170 3347 59 92 32 24 0 0
OW 47 359 39 83 95 83 1 0
VODI 10 142 44 153 363 276 61 0
ODI 0 25 14 102 290 394 90 0
CDI 0 2 12 67 301 690 355 0
VCDI 0 1 2 20 234 2142 8898 19747

Date: 2023-11-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5899 4510 326 87 28 11 0 0
OW 31 298 62 75 24 0 0 0
VODI 10 176 65 151 72 32 0 0
ODI 1 27 27 160 284 219 0 0
CDI 0 2 8 52 214 817 135 0
VCDI 0 0 0 51 176 3499 9525 18812
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5872 4316 288 112 54 23 0 0
OW 40 415 80 63 21 35 0 0
VODI 26 221 82 154 160 281 6 0
ODI 3 59 33 126 166 392 89 0
CDI 0 2 5 57 166 818 265 0
VCDI 0 0 0 64 231 3029 9300 18812

Date: 2023-11-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4934 5226 96 125 55 19 0 0
OW 34 385 43 110 44 19 0 0
VODI 11 170 72 124 104 36 0 0
ODI 0 44 17 92 220 149 10 0
CDI 0 13 12 41 187 502 65 0
VCDI 0 1 2 14 219 3421 11202 18048
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4946 4959 82 134 64 45 0 0
OW 29 484 67 97 25 25 0 0
VODI 4 278 43 138 161 235 1 0
ODI 0 107 31 82 243 419 44 0
CDI 0 11 18 44 128 633 144 0
VCDI 0 0 1 11 208 2789 11088 18048


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