Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-10-26

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-10-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 105808 18673 743 903 767 108 0 0
OW 11 1594 497 1211 1352 497 1 0
VODI 0 864 289 917 1861 967 10 0
ODI 0 49 34 260 786 1099 71 0
CDI 0 21 22 99 531 1608 195 0
VCDI 0 9 21 84 510 8602 25535 10439
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-10-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 108390 14657 433 639 442 272 45 0
OW 74 1711 436 1153 1145 212 44 0
VODI 0 916 299 1184 2130 786 62 0
ODI 0 150 117 457 1210 921 84 0
CDI 0 25 40 177 742 1383 151 0
VCDI 0 3 10 150 880 8769 30609 6140
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-10-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 108080 15471 591 864 284 72 0 0
OW 7 774 294 818 503 68 7 0
VODI 0 182 227 882 1588 315 5 0
ODI 0 23 38 307 2204 1599 48 0
CDI 0 2 12 116 1243 3828 216 0
VCDI 0 1 1 29 361 9403 25416 11169
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-10-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 106354 14514 709 1018 240 86 38 0
OW 7 755 344 1139 714 152 20 0
VODI 0 123 141 737 1312 721 101 0
ODI 0 17 26 239 1346 1679 290 0
CDI 0 5 10 117 888 4367 659 0
VCDI 0 0 1 47 887 8639 23724 14882
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 106342 14348 701 1138 312 90 36 0
OW 19 893 340 994 658 217 15 0
VODI 0 150 152 760 1257 627 78 0
ODI 0 16 25 239 1294 1588 308 0
CDI 0 7 12 115 957 4107 473 0
VCDI 0 0 1 51 909 9015 23922 14882

Date: 2023-10-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 104059 14360 675 1309 479 109 27 0
OW 10 524 300 1081 977 160 16 0
VODI 0 76 73 654 1338 1225 130 0
ODI 0 6 27 169 603 1743 357 0
CDI 0 3 9 68 423 3807 1241 0
VCDI 0 0 0 33 321 8800 22095 19761
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 104059 14150 703 1433 517 121 29 0
OW 10 704 250 953 864 212 18 0
VODI 0 106 98 667 1429 1139 107 0
ODI 0 6 24 162 619 1642 307 0
CDI 0 3 9 66 416 3381 1134 0
VCDI 0 0 0 33 296 9349 22271 19761

Date: 2023-10-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 101888 15000 599 936 627 113 16 0
OW 16 297 258 637 380 57 15 0
VODI 0 59 139 847 1050 160 27 0
ODI 0 1 12 219 1735 918 19 0
CDI 0 2 2 30 687 6088 675 6
VCDI 0 0 3 17 128 5252 25629 22504
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 101888 14644 690 1399 1092 193 58 0
OW 16 557 177 658 965 210 22 0
VODI 0 147 109 367 1272 1628 101 0
ODI 0 8 17 178 517 1689 328 0
CDI 0 0 11 46 442 2284 1396 43
VCDI 0 3 9 38 319 6584 24476 22467

Date: 2023-11-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 100562 15026 583 885 612 325 46 0
OW 29 391 214 549 485 178 25 0
VODI 0 140 100 454 1009 495 31 0
ODI 0 38 36 218 828 1005 120 0
CDI 0 9 16 62 809 2654 1013 3
VCDI 0 0 5 33 306 5364 26673 25717
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 100552 14329 547 994 1026 519 98 0
OW 35 1031 195 427 695 386 46 0
VODI 4 218 153 425 1073 1412 347 0
ODI 0 10 33 187 538 1521 612 0
CDI 0 12 14 113 365 1485 1335 124
VCDI 0 4 12 55 352 4698 25470 25596

Date: 2023-11-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 100279 13986 582 727 739 300 30 0
OW 44 632 216 438 519 343 33 0
VODI 0 293 133 396 672 384 34 0
ODI 0 88 64 271 724 722 100 0
CDI 0 4 19 193 886 1373 527 4
VCDI 0 0 1 30 983 5856 25249 29174
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 100219 13573 551 743 1059 615 91 0
OW 82 876 256 412 431 356 57 0
VODI 22 444 149 487 934 1029 151 0
ODI 0 103 42 231 831 1208 581 7
CDI 0 7 16 126 563 1283 1226 23
VCDI 0 0 1 56 705 4487 23867 29148


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