Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-10-12

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-10-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 120343 19705 616 1059 470 233 17 0
OW 0 1132 245 860 736 239 13 0
VODI 0 420 151 389 727 577 36 0
ODI 0 109 62 297 553 697 78 0
CDI 0 87 49 170 627 1804 845 0
VCDI 0 15 18 141 290 6732 24629 1877
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-10-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 119923 18243 623 995 671 158 4 0
OW 39 1605 289 809 814 245 3 0
VODI 0 324 196 485 932 769 40 0
ODI 0 95 42 314 376 841 236 0
CDI 0 88 33 163 395 1306 930 0
VCDI 0 20 24 91 252 5160 23933 5582
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-10-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 116839 20551 877 1430 437 64 0 0
OW 18 409 242 983 454 81 2 0
VODI 0 96 84 727 869 239 6 0
ODI 0 27 23 171 1128 554 31 0
CDI 0 9 18 63 781 2067 497 0
VCDI 0 0 0 16 89 3683 25656 7827
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-10-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 118382 17692 638 1045 329 96 0 0
OW 49 1149 311 888 609 72 5 0
VODI 11 263 137 640 972 201 10 0
ODI 0 62 33 221 832 570 23 0
CDI 0 33 27 68 460 1700 392 0
VCDI 0 0 6 40 247 4557 20612 13666
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 118364 18088 728 1277 410 123 2 0
OW 52 822 204 696 482 57 7 0
VODI 26 196 157 582 980 197 6 0
ODI 0 58 27 226 820 620 21 0
CDI 0 35 25 69 439 1544 367 0
VCDI 0 0 11 52 318 4655 20639 13666

Date: 2023-10-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 115994 17909 437 661 406 214 4 0
OW 216 1586 439 1006 855 206 1 0
VODI 22 371 211 631 934 412 34 0
ODI 0 114 54 242 648 581 57 0
CDI 0 70 37 108 528 1216 206 0
VCDI 0 24 29 124 436 5172 19486 15367
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 116063 18003 529 825 539 291 4 0
OW 135 1522 321 729 681 153 3 0
VODI 34 342 233 749 951 359 25 0
ODI 0 108 59 221 651 567 52 0
CDI 0 64 31 111 514 1136 220 0
VCDI 0 35 34 137 471 5295 19484 15367

Date: 2023-10-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 112765 19621 745 905 279 75 0 0
OW 64 1380 383 805 322 100 4 0
VODI 12 145 153 905 931 153 6 0
ODI 0 49 29 247 1753 670 52 0
CDI 0 19 25 119 858 2685 269 0
VCDI 0 0 2 54 349 4297 19859 15959
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 112782 18650 679 1079 600 255 15 0
OW 28 1740 307 643 563 273 20 0
VODI 22 540 202 645 1382 786 55 0
ODI 9 171 74 275 648 631 88 0
CDI 0 69 39 194 588 1029 297 0
VCDI 0 44 36 199 711 5006 19715 15959

Date: 2023-10-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 109166 18250 761 1451 646 128 12 0
OW 0 2083 562 1393 835 184 38 0
VODI 0 411 185 694 1242 454 29 0
ODI 0 35 26 121 931 1035 80 0
CDI 0 11 31 78 479 2260 673 1
VCDI 0 0 0 12 227 4700 19727 18097
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 109164 18266 878 1905 1067 329 35 0
OW 2 1511 310 867 864 411 54 0
VODI 0 820 258 512 894 1211 146 0
ODI 0 118 73 254 532 1119 203 0
CDI 0 47 22 129 477 922 690 4
VCDI 0 28 24 82 526 4769 19431 18094

Date: 2023-10-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 105808 18673 743 903 767 108 0 0
OW 11 1594 497 1211 1352 497 1 0
VODI 0 864 289 917 1861 967 10 0
ODI 0 49 34 260 786 1099 71 0
CDI 0 21 22 99 531 1608 195 0
VCDI 0 9 21 84 510 8602 25535 10439
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 105817 18581 863 1324 1349 520 0 0
OW 2 1451 333 807 1726 900 4 0
VODI 0 979 269 792 889 1512 56 0
ODI 0 167 93 314 652 1078 229 0
CDI 0 27 31 183 581 1136 446 0
VCDI 0 5 17 54 610 7735 25077 10439


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