Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-09-07

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-09-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 106511 18839 20078 515 77 0 0 0
OW 0 407 1788 545 73 0 0 0
VODI 0 160 2039 1674 674 10 0 0
ODI 0 34 1869 1651 5212 846 0 0
CDI 0 1 2737 1360 5312 7318 201 0
VCDI 0 0 4053 1859 409 696 100 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-09-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 121098 23254 780 698 36 0 0 0
OW 0 1718 613 788 84 3 0 0
VODI 0 373 597 2690 835 22 0 0
ODI 0 56 98 2190 6209 737 4 0
CDI 0 7 7 186 6395 10165 325 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 287 5170 1623 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-09-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 122418 24099 922 558 59 0 0 0
OW 0 613 548 727 64 0 0 0
VODI 0 170 379 2474 894 18 0 0
ODI 0 14 38 1593 7723 947 0 0
CDI 0 5 2 86 4289 12157 363 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 11 4736 1139 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-09-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 123268 23120 766 666 50 0 0 0
OW 0 940 556 709 47 1 0 0
VODI 0 262 388 2382 838 4 0 0
ODI 0 28 99 1885 6206 1716 0 0
CDI 0 5 1 174 5090 10514 396 0
VCDI 0 1 0 2 134 6358 442 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 123268 23037 811 741 53 0 0 0
OW 0 944 477 621 70 1 0 0
VODI 0 335 420 2401 836 6 0 0
ODI 0 32 99 1851 5917 1647 3 0
CDI 0 6 3 202 5271 10215 386 0
VCDI 0 2 0 2 218 6724 449 0

Date: 2023-09-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 126210 20436 555 503 13 0 0 0
OW 0 1247 474 743 49 0 0 0
VODI 0 356 442 2284 800 7 0 0
ODI 0 47 129 2146 6044 1132 1 0
CDI 0 1 9 433 4859 8958 243 0
VCDI 0 0 2 2 135 7851 937 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 126210 20271 625 588 16 0 0 0
OW 0 1310 406 679 69 0 0 0
VODI 0 444 443 2295 745 15 0 0
ODI 0 61 127 2085 5790 1133 0 0
CDI 0 1 8 461 5144 8647 261 0
VCDI 0 0 2 3 136 8153 920 0

Date: 2023-09-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 126246 21404 722 645 31 0 0 0
OW 0 812 449 742 59 0 0 0
VODI 0 206 358 3029 844 2 0 0
ODI 0 7 20 1310 9185 707 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 1999 12501 106 0
VCDI 0 0 1 4 9 4664 970 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 126244 20093 562 631 50 0 0 0
OW 2 1496 388 697 128 0 0 0
VODI 0 685 431 1918 858 70 0 0
ODI 0 151 154 1921 4955 714 0 0
CDI 0 4 14 575 5942 7038 152 0
VCDI 0 0 1 4 194 10052 924 0

Date: 2023-09-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 126030 21666 692 770 94 0 0 0
OW 0 931 394 814 190 0 0 0
VODI 0 249 330 2207 923 100 0 0
ODI 0 9 30 1311 7772 1366 29 0
CDI 0 0 0 23 2722 9071 1318 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 14 6708 1278 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 126030 20187 525 682 91 0 0 0
OW 0 1630 305 623 171 1 0 0
VODI 0 885 443 1785 740 84 0 0
ODI 0 149 154 1754 4455 683 11 0
CDI 0 4 19 281 6066 6500 786 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 192 9977 1828 0

Date: 2023-09-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 127852 19615 577 673 213 9 0 0
OW 0 1203 434 727 221 4 0 0
VODI 0 329 363 1931 914 73 0 0
ODI 0 43 72 1313 6775 1439 34 0
CDI 0 0 2 184 3353 7991 883 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 31 7430 2359 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 127852 17935 518 731 235 11 0 0
OW 0 1839 222 536 232 10 0 0
VODI 0 1181 459 1426 799 48 0 0
ODI 0 203 204 1620 3887 611 6 0
CDI 0 32 45 516 5973 6870 514 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 381 9396 2756 0


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