Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-08-31

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-08-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 115498 25482 1394 1344 123 0 0 0
OW 3 1048 900 1444 125 3 0 0
VODI 0 224 405 3104 1148 56 1 0
ODI 0 31 42 1466 5405 1035 5 0
CDI 0 3 10 152 3564 12572 1394 0
VCDI 0 4 0 0 5 4782 4276 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-08-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 116748 24995 1230 1086 125 5 0 0
OW 0 1262 851 1340 150 9 0 0
VODI 0 267 368 2916 1219 70 2 0
ODI 0 31 76 1557 5034 943 9 0
CDI 0 7 18 155 5459 10961 1725 0
VCDI 0 4 0 1 322 5723 2380 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-08-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 118279 25203 1330 877 65 0 0 0
OW 0 693 765 947 66 1 0 0
VODI 0 135 397 3468 773 13 0 0
ODI 0 6 30 1384 7703 1113 12 0
CDI 0 6 7 120 4745 11418 472 0
VCDI 0 1 0 0 16 4131 2872 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-08-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97050 24237 23874 738 76 0 0 0
OW 0 492 1519 531 113 0 0 0
VODI 0 160 2065 1763 599 9 0 0
ODI 0 12 2702 1717 5063 338 0 0
CDI 0 1 3967 1198 5393 5844 520 0
VCDI 0 0 3608 1586 657 883 333 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97050 24308 24161 786 93 0 0 0
OW 0 437 1202 496 105 0 0 0
VODI 0 144 2071 1630 583 8 0 0
ODI 0 13 2817 2070 4916 323 0 0
CDI 0 0 3996 1007 5536 5803 512 0
VCDI 0 0 3488 1544 668 940 341 0

Date: 2023-09-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 118285 26223 772 544 59 0 0 0
OW 0 1397 669 837 112 1 0 0
VODI 0 309 529 2946 763 13 0 0
ODI 0 34 77 2118 6561 692 0 0
CDI 0 7 9 133 6298 10258 393 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 275 4641 2093 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 118285 26601 914 762 81 0 0 0
OW 0 969 565 753 98 1 0 0
VODI 0 348 482 2750 785 8 0 0
ODI 0 45 87 2156 6571 771 3 0
CDI 0 7 8 157 6227 10200 416 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 306 4625 2067 0

Date: 2023-09-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 122941 23150 916 598 54 0 0 0
OW 0 658 598 720 60 0 0 0
VODI 0 169 365 2686 937 9 0 0
ODI 0 8 32 1416 8342 842 2 0
CDI 0 5 2 72 3965 12685 415 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 9 4324 1068 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 122941 22113 794 683 115 0 0 0
OW 0 1344 445 589 211 3 0 0
VODI 0 461 559 2064 1135 68 0 0
ODI 0 65 103 1940 5731 1310 17 0
CDI 0 7 12 215 5840 10830 451 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 335 5649 1017 0

Date: 2023-09-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 122411 24063 865 605 39 0 0 0
OW 0 676 574 764 71 0 0 0
VODI 0 177 378 2389 910 6 0 0
ODI 0 14 46 1648 7120 1331 0 0
CDI 0 4 2 116 3843 11297 1104 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 36 5208 1350 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 122411 22773 687 646 77 0 0 0
OW 0 1433 415 623 110 0 0 0
VODI 0 641 604 2034 816 15 0 0
ODI 0 76 145 1860 5807 882 0 0
CDI 0 11 14 359 5020 10880 863 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 189 6065 1591 0

Date: 2023-09-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 124413 22065 688 603 19 0 0 0
OW 0 1110 476 751 56 0 0 0
VODI 0 297 433 2424 733 8 0 0
ODI 0 41 108 2251 5974 1347 0 0
CDI 0 0 4 380 4096 10680 452 0
VCDI 0 2 1 4 64 7144 424 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 124413 20624 618 753 44 0 0 0
OW 0 1723 290 478 108 0 0 0
VODI 0 1031 565 2044 608 13 0 0
ODI 0 112 204 2462 4773 851 0 0
CDI 0 25 32 672 5233 9997 394 0
VCDI 0 0 1 4 176 8318 482 0


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