Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2023-07-27

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-07-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8863 5904 330 391 90 32 0 0
OW 0 318 211 616 216 17 0 0
VODI 0 98 117 1569 1487 63 4 0
ODI 0 2 13 1036 7885 482 17 0
CDI 0 2 0 47 4341 8079 127 0
VCDI 0 4 0 0 60 3400 45 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-07-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7244 7827 407 413 104 25 5 0
OW 0 370 232 720 274 38 0 0
VODI 0 127 190 1972 1891 142 7 0
ODI 0 7 10 933 6474 1124 10 0
CDI 0 0 0 42 1527 11725 0 0
VCDI 0 4 0 0 25 1968 29 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-07-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8084 7504 533 488 102 33 1 0
OW 0 313 256 582 194 35 0 0
VODI 0 86 202 2951 1687 53 4 0
ODI 0 4 5 505 7114 771 8 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 2273 11110 216 0
VCDI 0 4 0 2 7 735 0 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-07-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8961 7236 513 464 140 24 0 0
OW 0 382 403 909 235 29 1 0
VODI 0 90 151 3445 1731 47 5 0
ODI 0 0 0 478 6451 573 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 2540 8365 1048 0
VCDI 0 4 0 2 24 915 692 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8961 7254 519 543 172 30 0 0
OW 0 359 341 716 215 20 2 0
VODI 0 95 207 3464 1762 54 4 0
ODI 0 0 0 573 6334 542 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 2620 8562 1150 0
VCDI 0 4 0 2 18 745 590 0

Date: 2023-07-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9071 7638 515 494 144 36 3 0
OW 0 498 438 1408 273 33 4 0
VODI 0 67 104 3041 2312 60 2 0
ODI 0 2 2 247 5126 1406 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 1760 6775 2174 0
VCDI 0 4 1 2 20 1615 566 15
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9071 7656 522 567 198 41 2 0
OW 0 430 344 1073 213 27 5 0
VODI 0 118 188 3238 2290 52 2 0
ODI 0 1 5 312 4935 1401 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 1980 7117 2230 0
VCDI 0 4 1 2 19 1287 510 15

Date: 2023-07-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9155 8446 498 480 93 18 0 0
OW 0 304 323 730 112 17 0 0
VODI 0 76 250 3618 763 35 0 0
ODI 0 2 3 779 6656 90 2 0
CDI 0 0 3 11 1499 5105 14 0
VCDI 0 5 0 2 10 2468 4286 13
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9155 8270 518 762 138 23 0 0
OW 0 460 400 1758 321 32 0 0
VODI 0 94 149 2851 2086 42 0 0
ODI 0 4 7 225 4191 1374 6 0
CDI 0 0 3 21 2316 5507 2877 0
VCDI 0 5 0 3 81 755 1419 13

Date: 2023-08-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9232 8933 589 689 133 1 0 0
OW 0 299 339 1090 143 11 0 0
VODI 0 83 195 3266 1405 17 0 0
ODI 0 4 0 585 4869 583 18 0
CDI 0 7 7 11 1802 3557 1148 0
VCDI 0 4 0 10 50 342 4820 1624
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9232 8712 618 1076 193 3 0 0
OW 0 528 374 2058 439 19 0 0
VODI 0 73 127 2186 2040 42 4 0
ODI 0 6 2 300 3908 1079 65 0
CDI 0 7 9 27 1749 3272 5148 358
VCDI 0 4 0 4 73 96 769 1266

Date: 2023-08-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9714 8961 527 694 101 1 0 0
OW 0 409 391 1198 142 23 1 0
VODI 0 85 168 3276 1479 44 2 0
ODI 0 2 1 278 4502 553 13 0
CDI 0 11 9 17 1390 3855 1548 0
VCDI 0 3 1 4 30 2027 4174 232
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9714 8808 603 1392 201 28 0 0
OW 0 564 390 2045 406 30 3 0
VODI 0 81 89 1815 1967 82 0 0
ODI 0 3 3 184 3533 1266 245 0
CDI 0 12 11 27 1521 4775 4004 0
VCDI 0 3 1 4 16 322 1486 232


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