Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-07-27

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-07-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95885 22763 1312 1460 227 39 0 0
OW 0 971 791 2229 500 26 0 0
VODI 0 230 292 3631 3697 176 4 0
ODI 0 27 53 1612 13539 1767 21 0
CDI 0 10 11 162 7508 20454 344 0
VCDI 0 4 0 0 63 6145 1095 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-07-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96657 22768 1496 1871 210 29 5 0
OW 0 1000 723 2221 782 44 0 0
VODI 0 272 410 3750 4739 433 14 0
ODI 0 43 41 1355 11192 2566 63 0
CDI 0 12 26 175 3698 24653 424 0
VCDI 0 4 0 0 30 5073 269 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-07-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97447 23365 1663 1797 193 35 1 0
OW 0 673 665 1544 345 49 0 0
VODI 0 213 429 4897 3085 132 12 0
ODI 0 26 47 1275 13570 2967 57 0
CDI 0 5 8 82 3268 25811 1080 0
VCDI 0 4 0 2 9 2159 133 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-07-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 99279 22621 1510 1681 229 28 0 0
OW 0 772 816 2049 427 50 1 0
VODI 0 236 396 5637 3387 167 14 0
ODI 0 22 45 1086 12889 2765 52 0
CDI 0 8 15 57 3294 20512 3262 0
VCDI 0 4 0 2 25 1741 1969 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 99279 22645 1567 1887 280 35 0 0
OW 0 734 708 1826 460 44 2 0
VODI 0 245 444 5508 3370 199 17 0
ODI 0 26 47 1228 12681 2583 42 0
CDI 0 9 16 61 3441 20774 3377 0
VCDI 0 4 0 2 19 1628 1860 0

Date: 2023-07-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 98365 24571 1460 1467 213 43 3 0
OW 1 1119 925 2457 498 52 4 0
VODI 0 251 373 5343 4418 204 2 0
ODI 0 17 43 712 10664 4302 60 0
CDI 0 2 20 50 2416 17041 5398 0
VCDI 0 4 1 2 20 1795 2686 46
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 98365 24655 1542 1633 295 46 2 0
OW 1 991 767 2138 460 52 5 0
VODI 0 292 446 5432 4345 216 2 0
ODI 0 20 46 769 10456 4135 52 0
CDI 0 2 20 57 2654 17530 5433 1
VCDI 0 4 1 2 19 1458 2659 45

Date: 2023-07-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 98390 26358 1408 1078 142 18 0 0
OW 0 857 710 1417 227 17 0 0
VODI 0 280 689 5990 1676 65 0 0
ODI 0 12 36 1710 12436 869 3 0
CDI 0 0 5 34 2796 15621 596 0
VCDI 0 5 0 2 10 3403 10007 181
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 98389 25988 1455 1630 237 23 0 0
OW 1 1191 859 2897 690 37 0 0
VODI 0 287 464 4905 4450 204 0 0
ODI 0 40 51 720 9034 4972 39 0
CDI 0 1 19 76 2795 13970 7390 0
VCDI 0 5 0 3 81 787 3177 181

Date: 2023-08-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 99962 25691 1431 1545 199 1 0 0
OW 0 836 846 2016 342 12 0 0
VODI 0 218 466 5520 2795 139 0 0
ODI 0 15 27 1308 9879 1827 24 0
CDI 0 7 7 49 3393 13604 1928 0
VCDI 0 4 0 10 50 1998 8478 2421
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 99961 25145 1525 2254 327 4 0 0
OW 1 1297 826 3274 976 28 0 0
VODI 0 284 360 4039 4715 354 4 0
ODI 0 34 54 795 8002 5243 239 0
CDI 0 7 12 82 2565 11849 8668 453
VCDI 0 4 0 4 73 103 1519 1968

Date: 2023-08-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 102269 24819 1161 1148 156 1 0 0
OW 0 1230 952 2148 314 23 1 0
VODI 0 248 476 5637 2875 87 2 0
ODI 0 18 36 1042 9147 1779 14 0
CDI 0 11 11 67 2939 14466 2081 0
VCDI 0 3 1 4 30 4083 6694 1075
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 102268 24366 1392 2282 323 28 0 0
OW 1 1528 817 3317 931 35 3 0
VODI 0 356 359 3704 4720 295 0 0
ODI 0 64 51 653 7121 6127 326 0
CDI 0 12 17 86 2350 13626 6553 30
VCDI 0 3 1 4 16 328 1910 1045


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