Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2023-07-20

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-07-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7146 6523 259 308 132 19 0 0
OW 0 169 158 371 116 22 0 0
VODI 0 123 100 728 1300 111 11 0
ODI 0 32 49 341 4621 568 47 0
CDI 0 15 11 27 7610 7963 329 0
VCDI 0 4 0 1 288 5654 710 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-07-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7617 6195 266 375 96 36 0 0
OW 0 260 158 473 247 21 0 0
VODI 0 147 92 726 1711 119 6 0
ODI 0 16 47 380 5153 308 37 0
CDI 0 1 3 57 6483 8275 210 0
VCDI 0 4 0 0 105 5961 281 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-07-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7842 6415 306 354 78 44 1 0
OW 0 259 142 383 103 15 0 0
VODI 0 109 154 955 997 68 1 0
ODI 0 2 6 641 8036 1660 18 0
CDI 0 2 0 13 3155 9275 400 0
VCDI 0 4 0 0 3 3704 721 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-07-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8876 5707 322 387 92 35 0 0
OW 0 305 199 504 151 24 0 0
VODI 0 101 129 1298 1353 83 1 0
ODI 0 2 6 911 7779 1162 20 0
CDI 0 2 0 51 3454 8763 302 0
VCDI 0 4 0 0 7 3589 247 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8876 5757 326 429 106 38 0 0
OW 0 247 183 476 198 20 0 0
VODI 0 104 139 1190 1279 83 1 0
ODI 0 7 8 986 7859 1193 19 0
CDI 0 2 0 70 3390 8906 304 0
VCDI 0 4 0 0 4 3416 246 0

Date: 2023-07-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8892 6067 354 381 93 25 1 0
OW 0 302 246 660 301 27 0 0
VODI 0 87 170 1662 1864 51 14 0
ODI 0 3 5 981 7215 724 29 0
CDI 0 1 0 42 3613 8691 200 0
VCDI 0 4 0 0 61 3009 91 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8892 6097 386 420 165 27 1 0
OW 0 260 204 682 297 17 0 0
VODI 0 98 163 1542 1809 59 8 0
ODI 0 3 22 1006 7337 861 34 0
CDI 0 2 0 76 3480 8837 201 0
VCDI 0 4 0 0 59 2726 91 0

Date: 2023-07-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8846 6532 437 426 85 21 0 0
OW 0 282 254 463 133 14 0 0
VODI 0 139 198 2869 1114 51 4 0
ODI 0 3 8 787 7949 446 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 1293 12608 243 0
VCDI 0 4 0 1 8 324 314 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8846 6468 452 567 211 24 0 0
OW 0 306 216 777 376 21 0 0
VODI 0 174 210 1915 1827 146 5 0
ODI 0 8 15 1223 5961 1366 6 0
CDI 0 0 4 67 2158 10996 470 0
VCDI 0 4 0 1 49 911 86 0

Date: 2023-07-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8630 7362 481 409 114 21 0 0
OW 0 355 326 723 238 29 0 0
VODI 0 72 139 3237 1728 56 3 0
ODI 0 2 0 445 6949 564 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 2407 9254 1158 0
VCDI 0 4 0 2 15 1133 6 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8630 7178 501 673 306 25 0 0
OW 0 372 230 848 407 46 0 0
VODI 0 228 170 2361 2144 76 3 0
ODI 0 13 45 895 5632 1116 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 38 2864 9477 1159 0
VCDI 0 4 0 5 98 317 5 0

Date: 2023-07-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9084 7384 510 470 139 22 0 0
OW 0 418 454 1065 246 26 3 0
VODI 0 71 140 3315 2090 67 3 0
ODI 0 5 5 407 6057 642 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 2556 7833 917 0
VCDI 0 4 0 2 22 1792 105 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9084 7182 571 888 300 28 0 0
OW 0 423 235 1361 410 49 3 0
VODI 0 240 228 2352 2149 108 7 0
ODI 0 30 74 641 4905 1064 0 0
CDI 0 3 1 18 3285 8205 916 0
VCDI 0 4 0 7 61 928 106 0


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