Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2023-07-13

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-07-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3940 8601 315 414 133 40 1 0
OW 0 201 126 201 100 14 5 0
VODI 0 78 76 314 446 94 17 0
ODI 0 1 14 261 1866 737 48 0
CDI 0 0 0 128 2549 9226 423 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 587 11779 3125 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-07-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4672 8203 280 373 119 47 0 0
OW 1 286 96 188 103 25 0 0
VODI 0 116 94 380 659 122 15 0
ODI 0 8 25 381 2091 642 40 0
CDI 0 0 4 156 5451 6549 264 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 854 11761 1856 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-07-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3276 10039 277 308 119 36 0 0
OW 1 143 126 216 65 12 0 0
VODI 0 52 98 659 585 88 5 0
ODI 0 9 16 369 3985 900 26 0
CDI 0 6 11 47 5083 10797 390 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 570 6059 1489 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-07-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6195 7305 278 323 167 2 0 0
OW 1 147 136 316 91 10 0 0
VODI 0 103 102 759 998 111 10 0
ODI 0 24 50 377 4499 604 43 0
CDI 0 22 13 40 5525 10493 174 0
VCDI 0 4 0 2 438 5861 643 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6195 7302 279 348 168 2 0 0
OW 1 158 121 280 117 15 0 0
VODI 0 93 115 725 920 117 11 0
ODI 0 27 54 423 4199 542 45 0
CDI 0 21 10 39 5860 10495 204 0
VCDI 0 4 0 2 454 5910 610 0

Date: 2023-07-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7182 6560 270 341 131 24 0 0
OW 0 221 163 425 174 19 0 0
VODI 0 128 106 737 1453 151 10 0
ODI 0 23 52 333 4714 515 46 0
CDI 0 13 6 38 7931 7052 562 0
VCDI 0 4 0 1 1013 4887 581 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7182 6544 281 374 128 23 0 0
OW 0 247 140 364 205 23 1 0
VODI 0 114 120 703 1399 128 18 0
ODI 0 31 50 392 4249 515 49 0
CDI 0 9 6 41 8426 7097 570 0
VCDI 0 4 0 1 1009 4862 561 0

Date: 2023-07-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7082 6981 255 302 73 42 0 0
OW 0 271 185 292 48 14 0 0
VODI 0 110 173 906 746 49 4 0
ODI 0 7 7 360 8964 1142 19 0
CDI 0 2 0 3 3714 9319 236 0
VCDI 0 4 0 0 5 4163 388 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7082 6861 286 409 96 48 0 0
OW 0 336 144 420 342 37 4 0
VODI 0 142 147 667 1868 137 17 0
ODI 0 30 43 301 4124 1165 31 0
CDI 0 2 0 65 7056 7540 258 0
VCDI 0 4 0 1 64 5802 337 0

Date: 2023-07-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7572 6792 353 392 83 32 0 0
OW 0 284 186 412 135 14 0 0
VODI 0 117 148 1041 1269 73 2 0
ODI 0 2 9 660 8679 675 15 0
CDI 0 2 0 36 3442 9012 278 0
VCDI 0 4 0 0 13 3538 596 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7572 6607 364 578 158 38 0 0
OW 0 370 159 599 416 39 0 0
VODI 0 179 133 764 1957 144 4 0
ODI 0 39 40 411 4631 607 39 0
CDI 0 2 0 189 6409 7463 263 0
VCDI 0 4 0 0 50 5053 585 0

Date: 2023-07-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8863 5904 330 391 90 32 0 0
OW 0 318 211 616 216 17 0 0
VODI 0 98 117 1569 1487 63 4 0
ODI 0 2 13 1036 7885 482 17 0
CDI 0 2 0 47 4341 8079 127 0
VCDI 0 4 0 0 60 3400 45 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8863 5686 361 856 214 40 0 0
OW 0 418 147 733 428 36 0 0
VODI 0 191 129 886 1780 182 3 0
ODI 0 27 34 802 4892 306 19 0
CDI 0 2 0 380 6572 6205 72 0
VCDI 0 4 0 2 193 5304 99 0


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