Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2023-07-06

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-06-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 666 9762 503 840 301 34 0 0
OW 0 324 153 413 188 20 1 0
VODI 0 111 81 270 311 71 6 0
ODI 0 30 40 158 813 467 37 0
CDI 0 6 10 86 1402 5670 332 0
VCDI 0 0 2 2 280 11416 10268 792
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-07-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1395 9614 427 763 197 32 0 0
OW 0 356 124 329 165 12 0 0
VODI 0 111 60 207 358 84 3 0
ODI 0 21 37 135 687 839 15 0
CDI 0 5 9 70 977 7334 756 0
VCDI 0 0 1 5 1425 12995 6247 71
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-07-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2701 9264 323 513 159 21 0 0
OW 1 238 115 221 85 8 4 0
VODI 0 85 91 267 289 34 10 0
ODI 0 16 20 182 1493 542 36 0
CDI 0 0 0 57 1866 9912 989 0
VCDI 0 0 1 2 191 12894 3236 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-07-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2584 9669 371 549 140 29 0 0
OW 0 206 105 175 120 11 1 0
VODI 0 72 74 311 357 82 12 0
ODI 0 0 15 252 1635 775 52 0
CDI 0 0 0 92 2686 8629 1196 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 2504 9973 3183 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2584 9690 381 571 166 33 0 0
OW 0 197 103 173 97 9 1 0
VODI 0 60 65 293 382 85 12 0
ODI 0 0 16 255 1491 754 53 0
CDI 0 0 0 87 2793 8431 1252 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 2513 10187 3126 0

Date: 2023-07-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3838 8832 304 415 123 41 2 0
OW 1 252 107 172 104 19 4 0
VODI 0 93 89 355 538 115 23 0
ODI 0 5 22 288 1742 967 30 0
CDI 0 0 3 134 3530 8180 459 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 297 12267 2512 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3838 8857 317 441 140 44 2 0
OW 1 226 89 162 92 21 4 0
VODI 0 94 95 346 528 129 17 0
ODI 0 5 24 270 1638 938 34 0
CDI 0 0 0 145 3636 8126 497 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 300 12331 2476 0

Date: 2023-07-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5844 7392 248 304 91 42 0 0
OW 2 183 125 160 54 9 0 0
VODI 0 58 110 553 522 38 5 0
ODI 0 10 27 370 3988 517 43 0
CDI 0 3 11 52 5666 10432 418 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 499 6097 1988 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5844 7258 252 322 107 52 0 0
OW 2 230 84 207 188 27 0 0
VODI 0 130 112 368 728 184 26 0
ODI 0 23 55 398 2042 678 52 0
CDI 0 5 18 144 6572 5977 295 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 1183 10217 2081 0

Date: 2023-07-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6753 6727 216 307 134 17 0 0
OW 2 136 125 241 87 6 0 0
VODI 0 80 89 699 881 64 5 0
ODI 0 13 38 410 4065 896 28 0
CDI 0 18 18 31 5117 10696 430 0
VCDI 0 1 1 5 653 5973 904 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6753 6433 203 338 171 26 0 0
OW 2 258 90 242 263 32 0 0
VODI 0 183 88 400 1047 135 4 0
ODI 0 70 65 558 2104 716 28 0
CDI 0 30 40 150 6361 6779 199 0
VCDI 0 1 1 5 991 9964 1136 0

Date: 2023-07-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7146 6523 259 308 132 19 0 0
OW 0 169 158 371 116 22 0 0
VODI 0 123 100 728 1300 111 11 0
ODI 0 32 49 341 4621 568 47 0
CDI 0 15 11 27 7610 7963 329 0
VCDI 0 4 0 1 288 5654 710 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7145 6196 239 350 187 60 0 0
OW 1 314 99 287 311 52 0 0
VODI 0 232 127 503 1192 119 10 0
ODI 0 98 105 474 2359 303 41 0
CDI 0 22 7 161 8708 4745 254 0
VCDI 0 4 0 1 1310 9058 792 0


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