Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2023-06-29

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-06-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 162 6436 531 1749 543 28 6 0
OW 2 389 134 845 423 41 20 0
VODI 0 101 67 438 1032 84 53 0
ODI 0 52 18 139 348 238 86 0
CDI 0 28 30 118 930 3796 1464 0
VCDI 0 0 1 42 798 5628 9191 9875
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-06-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 189 7555 593 1644 416 42 4 0
OW 1 376 120 681 614 42 30 0
VODI 0 120 67 274 491 54 70 0
ODI 0 69 33 145 409 291 80 0
CDI 0 55 32 106 1164 4530 1037 0
VCDI 0 0 1 6 716 7984 11792 4033
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-06-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 577 8312 634 1492 349 18 6 0
OW 1 177 94 534 234 34 5 0
VODI 0 88 64 410 514 35 11 0
ODI 0 27 37 153 736 348 21 0
CDI 0 9 8 81 1168 5008 413 0
VCDI 0 0 1 4 273 7820 14132 2038
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-06-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 669 9178 687 1004 302 37 1 0
OW 0 224 128 464 242 17 3 0
VODI 0 107 67 268 413 67 5 0
ODI 0 21 32 153 576 606 29 0
CDI 0 6 12 64 789 5279 1074 0
VCDI 0 0 2 2 181 8372 11117 3668
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 669 9219 717 1091 321 37 1 0
OW 0 192 103 373 267 21 3 0
VODI 0 102 65 278 367 70 4 0
ODI 0 17 29 151 551 587 40 0
CDI 0 6 12 60 814 5293 1196 0
VCDI 0 0 2 2 183 8370 10985 3668

Date: 2023-07-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1108 9727 407 788 236 32 1 0
OW 0 393 127 370 151 19 1 0
VODI 0 107 84 225 308 98 6 0
ODI 0 23 38 135 819 607 23 0
CDI 0 7 9 66 1422 6150 625 0
VCDI 0 0 1 6 1161 13065 7277 244
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1108 9887 436 826 278 32 1 0
OW 0 246 104 342 130 23 1 0
VODI 0 94 80 227 273 95 5 0
ODI 0 26 38 123 774 586 23 0
CDI 0 4 7 66 1458 6232 630 0
VCDI 0 0 1 6 1184 13003 7273 244

Date: 2023-07-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 769 10576 440 678 185 11 0 0
OW 0 238 132 233 85 14 1 0
VODI 0 76 80 334 255 40 4 0
ODI 0 12 24 169 1218 634 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 34 1055 11712 287 0
VCDI 0 0 1 12 259 11957 4321 17
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 769 10541 479 782 256 21 0 0
OW 0 192 86 268 118 24 0 0
VODI 0 121 67 176 333 104 4 0
ODI 0 38 33 128 776 876 55 0
CDI 0 10 11 94 1197 8332 240 0
VCDI 0 0 1 12 377 15011 4317 17

Date: 2023-07-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2499 9682 332 549 102 32 0 0
OW 0 259 115 177 93 12 1 0
VODI 0 66 75 293 347 35 9 0
ODI 0 5 22 196 1627 605 38 0
CDI 0 0 0 76 2882 8731 886 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 1469 10880 3762 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2499 9544 326 594 176 37 1 0
OW 0 234 91 163 113 17 4 0
VODI 0 176 71 192 397 113 24 0
ODI 0 54 44 205 1110 892 89 0
CDI 0 4 12 137 3126 6237 597 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 1598 12999 3981 0

Date: 2023-07-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3940 8601 315 414 133 40 1 0
OW 0 201 126 201 100 14 5 0
VODI 0 78 76 314 446 94 17 0
ODI 0 1 14 261 1866 737 48 0
CDI 0 0 0 128 2549 9226 423 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 587 11779 3125 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3940 8361 294 450 187 42 3 0
OW 0 246 103 146 118 20 8 0
VODI 0 186 73 212 517 149 51 0
ODI 0 82 52 324 1297 868 31 0
CDI 0 6 9 191 2920 7731 648 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 642 13080 2878 0


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