Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2023-05-11

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-05-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 8 1 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 17 7 7 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 30 13 36 29 11 20 0
ODI 0 20 17 92 106 79 45 0
CDI 0 21 26 141 506 631 541 0
VCDI 0 39 21 181 493 2544 18875 21304
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-05-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 36 7 6 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 25 23 47 49 26 7 0
ODI 0 35 26 66 130 174 63 0
CDI 0 47 50 135 301 456 729 2
VCDI 0 111 57 184 638 2676 19092 20659
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-05-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 39 5 8 1 0 0 0
OW 0 48 17 33 9 2 0 0
VODI 0 45 43 67 97 12 1 0
ODI 0 26 30 73 174 148 17 0
CDI 0 57 54 185 444 710 494 12
VCDI 0 44 36 214 431 3255 20315 18720
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-05-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 30 11 25 5 0 0 0
OW 0 37 5 46 14 8 0 0
VODI 0 62 34 44 109 26 1 0
ODI 0 21 37 82 184 159 31 0
CDI 0 43 42 169 513 886 670 1
VCDI 0 44 56 257 444 4444 18091 19235
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 22 10 37 7 1 0 0
OW 0 40 6 39 30 11 0 0
VODI 0 65 32 40 114 36 2 0
ODI 0 23 39 76 164 149 27 0
CDI 0 47 49 185 533 890 758 4
VCDI 0 40 49 246 421 4436 18006 19232

Date: 2023-05-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 51 11 21 3 0 0 0
OW 0 53 13 63 36 3 0 0
VODI 0 85 31 79 135 59 8 0
ODI 0 36 40 117 174 236 57 0
CDI 0 28 37 200 418 782 719 4
VCDI 0 117 61 296 442 3400 17064 20987
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 52 15 30 8 0 0 0
OW 0 38 6 59 45 4 0 0
VODI 0 89 29 67 120 60 5 0
ODI 0 45 48 127 178 259 46 0
CDI 0 39 36 208 428 754 703 4
VCDI 0 107 59 285 429 3403 17094 20987

Date: 2023-05-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 169 5 7 0 0 0 0
OW 0 103 46 89 18 2 0 0
VODI 0 138 65 268 161 15 4 0
ODI 0 88 50 245 392 253 66 0
CDI 0 42 24 174 454 1591 757 1
VCDI 0 10 14 66 181 5678 20782 13908
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 67 11 35 7 0 0 0
OW 0 72 10 69 28 5 1 0
VODI 0 98 38 132 152 82 37 0
ODI 0 70 37 152 213 259 137 0
CDI 0 105 46 210 360 837 1007 0
VCDI 0 138 62 251 446 6356 20427 13909

Date: 2023-05-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 286 14 6 1 0 0 0
OW 0 218 45 89 16 2 0 0
VODI 0 204 104 209 168 44 14 0
ODI 0 96 56 200 266 205 89 0
CDI 0 58 35 216 351 1038 768 0
VCDI 0 6 14 106 399 3337 20697 16509
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 139 10 15 2 4 1 0
OW 0 144 23 45 14 8 3 0
VODI 0 168 57 124 141 55 49 0
ODI 0 132 57 139 227 243 152 0
CDI 0 139 63 299 330 752 903 11
VCDI 0 146 58 204 487 3564 20460 16498

Date: 2023-05-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 226 14 24 1 0 0 0
OW 0 263 66 99 43 2 0 0
VODI 0 239 110 238 213 102 25 0
ODI 0 78 60 221 303 232 155 0
CDI 0 78 46 187 292 613 1157 0
VCDI 0 22 14 105 455 3614 24550 12019
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 154 18 27 4 0 0 0
OW 0 183 34 46 25 11 0 0
VODI 0 202 79 161 168 90 55 0
ODI 0 114 79 212 291 238 230 1
CDI 0 95 45 245 300 529 1234 10
VCDI 0 158 55 183 519 3695 24368 12008


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