Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-04-13

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-04-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60393 21051 2498 708 240 70 24 0
OW 52 199 271 328 189 98 35 0
VODI 0 80 190 299 306 180 91 0
ODI 0 33 79 162 279 231 164 0
CDI 0 33 25 137 320 522 465 19
VCDI 0 26 45 157 648 4251 28502 63648
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-04-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56031 19708 8062 920 299 80 16 0
OW 52 265 203 315 230 74 30 0
VODI 0 155 129 272 330 169 59 0
ODI 0 66 76 188 317 233 140 7
CDI 0 61 30 142 397 643 517 71
VCDI 0 26 30 119 754 5290 31976 58566
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-04-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62367 19820 1685 976 282 60 14 0
OW 52 247 155 354 243 67 29 0
VODI 0 127 114 263 446 178 60 0
ODI 0 78 45 163 383 341 136 0
CDI 0 52 17 87 427 1333 804 3
VCDI 0 32 17 79 606 5261 31146 58499
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-04-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61800 20489 1873 928 287 81 17 0
OW 52 237 143 370 253 120 46 0
VODI 0 99 107 263 364 287 79 0
ODI 0 36 41 194 302 330 141 0
CDI 0 33 25 96 442 1029 861 6
VCDI 0 7 12 72 541 5425 29453 60107
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61800 20529 1895 958 300 96 33 0
OW 52 196 127 351 239 120 33 0
VODI 0 100 103 266 370 273 81 0
ODI 0 35 39 183 293 337 134 0
CDI 0 33 26 89 420 976 835 7
VCDI 0 8 11 76 567 5470 29481 60106

Date: 2023-04-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64779 18088 1634 820 289 78 39 0
OW 52 248 163 350 220 147 37 0
VODI 0 163 108 274 316 245 85 0
ODI 0 79 54 151 292 312 144 0
CDI 0 62 22 105 403 939 913 8
VCDI 0 10 13 102 596 4929 28667 61112
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64779 18146 1659 864 315 107 53 0
OW 52 208 152 312 209 134 27 0
VODI 0 141 97 289 296 239 89 0
ODI 0 82 47 129 295 300 143 0
CDI 0 62 26 107 402 968 1007 8
VCDI 0 11 13 101 599 4902 28566 61112

Date: 2023-04-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60571 20401 3600 845 241 43 22 0
OW 52 193 326 408 242 58 28 0
VODI 0 80 168 426 388 191 25 0
ODI 0 22 48 180 415 413 109 0
CDI 0 11 18 119 531 1475 665 4
VCDI 0 21 22 160 790 4876 25375 63486
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60571 20380 3667 969 321 89 68 0
OW 52 161 215 317 223 76 32 0
VODI 0 78 152 319 329 197 49 0
ODI 0 59 59 161 292 359 143 0
CDI 0 43 54 133 446 1049 727 8
VCDI 0 7 35 239 996 5286 25205 63482

Date: 2023-04-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59498 21992 3477 946 249 29 40 0
OW 51 217 218 367 258 86 23 0
VODI 0 84 103 323 380 219 39 0
ODI 0 30 36 200 343 341 176 0
CDI 0 32 18 162 539 1128 767 12
VCDI 0 14 14 203 1022 5406 31257 56749
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59498 21879 3436 993 316 75 67 0
OW 51 209 180 265 220 94 34 0
VODI 0 146 136 262 271 238 110 0
ODI 0 83 44 192 305 302 255 1
CDI 0 47 44 234 509 885 747 17
VCDI 0 5 26 255 1170 5615 31089 56743

Date: 2023-04-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60725 20130 3811 1021 252 81 38 0
OW 51 301 189 329 300 101 27 0
VODI 0 168 99 280 357 213 103 0
ODI 0 54 64 225 323 364 208 0
CDI 0 37 37 200 582 1049 888 7
VCDI 0 14 27 207 1319 6361 32057 54449
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60725 19990 3774 1065 363 114 72 0
OW 51 289 173 238 253 104 70 0
VODI 0 199 100 266 292 259 153 0
ODI 0 148 48 211 323 325 186 1
CDI 0 64 91 235 538 924 820 32
VCDI 0 14 41 247 1364 6443 32020 54423


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