Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-04-06

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-03-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58483 21661 3403 691 315 94 30 0
OW 62 207 236 377 204 94 27 0
VODI 0 114 124 253 330 186 117 0
ODI 0 39 27 154 337 259 213 0
CDI 0 10 3 75 440 706 621 4
VCDI 0 2 0 19 531 3077 28687 64836
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-04-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61047 18980 3510 762 354 144 41 0
OW 54 297 217 301 215 123 56 0
VODI 0 128 137 260 292 189 167 0
ODI 0 42 64 167 257 307 189 0
CDI 0 6 15 107 334 651 610 30
VCDI 0 0 0 34 570 3431 30887 62073
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-04-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56839 22436 4597 688 167 47 20 0
OW 53 147 389 352 191 55 14 0
VODI 0 72 189 366 290 162 31 0
ODI 0 39 42 177 262 283 115 0
CDI 0 15 11 111 345 517 533 21
VCDI 0 8 17 68 475 3625 25311 67968
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-04-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57037 24093 2842 636 252 107 27 0
OW 54 242 287 286 160 98 40 0
VODI 0 84 200 290 270 182 75 0
ODI 0 26 102 147 227 241 159 0
CDI 0 19 55 128 272 451 423 8
VCDI 0 25 47 129 584 3971 28891 63881
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57037 24120 2825 629 254 117 29 0
OW 54 213 284 271 158 95 38 0
VODI 0 85 224 290 256 173 75 0
ODI 0 31 95 158 238 241 157 2
CDI 0 16 50 135 253 445 434 7
VCDI 0 24 55 133 606 3979 28882 63880

Date: 2023-04-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57018 21174 5896 655 244 78 15 0
OW 52 228 268 324 202 72 15 0
VODI 0 102 158 326 341 152 53 0
ODI 0 36 73 171 320 254 97 0
CDI 0 40 32 140 367 613 329 8
VCDI 0 22 60 129 725 4979 32557 58723
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57018 21177 5901 667 257 89 15 0
OW 52 214 240 296 173 69 15 0
VODI 0 114 166 327 336 154 64 0
ODI 0 38 82 166 325 253 87 0
CDI 0 33 40 137 326 567 306 9
VCDI 0 26 58 152 782 5016 32579 58722

Date: 2023-04-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59950 20389 3412 873 292 44 2 0
OW 52 305 209 369 221 64 14 0
VODI 0 138 134 315 434 133 41 0
ODI 0 55 63 195 480 316 110 0
CDI 0 49 18 82 416 1120 768 0
VCDI 0 21 27 71 564 4942 30364 59996
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59950 20322 3459 956 382 104 22 0
OW 52 278 130 297 237 89 31 0
VODI 0 201 104 225 368 202 68 0
ODI 0 80 81 189 299 263 179 0
CDI 0 60 46 131 414 916 777 29
VCDI 0 16 43 107 707 5045 30222 59967

Date: 2023-04-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63946 18504 1409 1025 303 82 23 0
OW 52 276 101 356 273 90 50 0
VODI 0 142 115 221 411 263 92 0
ODI 0 55 57 155 303 380 132 0
CDI 0 64 27 91 446 1166 890 6
VCDI 0 11 13 79 489 4891 30599 59460
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63946 18314 1387 1021 377 132 72 0
OW 52 308 82 304 233 140 63 0
VODI 0 217 84 187 332 306 124 0
ODI 0 98 85 153 241 365 193 0
CDI 0 86 54 163 468 932 961 7
VCDI 0 29 30 99 574 4997 30373 59459

Date: 2023-04-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62843 19889 1629 854 320 72 23 0
OW 52 251 139 337 262 120 52 0
VODI 0 124 113 264 364 235 87 0
ODI 0 55 47 145 320 333 136 0
CDI 0 62 20 83 362 1009 1039 10
VCDI 0 12 10 76 550 4570 29291 60888
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62843 19688 1587 893 382 139 57 0
OW 52 275 122 265 233 157 69 0
VODI 0 190 94 203 317 296 144 0
ODI 0 124 77 150 235 331 157 0
CDI 0 90 57 129 372 754 819 13
VCDI 0 26 21 119 639 4662 29382 60885


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