Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-03-16

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-03-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58933 20119 5492 447 75 12 17 0
OW 52 457 249 405 131 13 5 0
VODI 0 275 160 448 272 64 5 0
ODI 0 112 106 243 328 153 21 0
CDI 0 139 99 233 454 579 156 1
VCDI 0 152 193 528 1527 7439 38290 48664
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-03-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61846 20625 2083 493 101 24 22 0
OW 58 532 206 341 156 51 2 0
VODI 2 347 178 347 253 117 11 0
ODI 0 208 101 291 267 198 25 0
CDI 0 134 49 205 310 625 210 4
VCDI 0 219 110 432 1279 5168 33382 56036
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-03-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59231 22278 3041 538 101 36 23 0
OW 52 385 286 406 127 46 6 0
VODI 0 226 230 459 309 78 14 0
ODI 0 141 73 217 378 179 42 0
CDI 0 69 63 114 409 751 449 2
VCDI 0 95 229 339 1220 5393 28929 60084
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-03-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62488 20723 951 603 218 85 31 0
OW 52 391 276 358 179 70 23 0
VODI 0 196 108 389 353 128 33 0
ODI 0 129 46 180 358 270 68 0
CDI 0 69 33 102 349 938 528 100
VCDI 0 114 61 195 891 4625 33018 57319
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62488 20691 968 631 213 84 29 0
OW 52 413 241 323 188 67 21 0
VODI 0 200 128 383 338 123 36 0
ODI 0 124 46 180 340 262 68 0
CDI 0 78 32 109 353 965 538 93
VCDI 0 116 60 201 916 4615 33009 57326

Date: 2023-03-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61957 20981 1140 601 226 88 60 0
OW 67 379 211 364 164 84 20 0
VODI 0 137 117 323 339 182 38 0
ODI 0 97 37 136 372 315 92 12
CDI 0 61 24 81 342 816 489 134
VCDI 0 34 43 108 492 4123 40931 50831
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61962 20992 1136 637 232 90 62 0
OW 62 341 197 337 164 83 19 0
VODI 0 161 128 309 337 173 34 0
ODI 0 88 43 135 363 307 93 12
CDI 0 62 24 79 319 816 515 139
VCDI 0 45 44 116 520 4139 40907 50826

Date: 2023-03-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58668 22863 2657 535 178 59 20 0
OW 56 323 278 389 186 48 7 0
VODI 0 165 84 356 366 180 28 0
ODI 0 81 32 119 399 365 45 0
CDI 0 52 17 52 317 1008 350 22
VCDI 0 25 34 110 418 3611 39405 53140
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58669 22790 2642 622 241 98 33 0
OW 55 323 232 273 203 77 19 0
VODI 0 179 124 312 283 190 33 0
ODI 0 97 38 146 300 342 72 1
CDI 0 70 22 84 334 886 457 35
VCDI 0 50 44 124 503 3678 39241 53126

Date: 2023-03-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58819 22564 2701 648 217 64 10 0
OW 56 244 219 360 254 79 12 0
VODI 0 192 105 234 344 227 63 0
ODI 0 82 69 115 275 333 119 0
CDI 0 40 28 113 305 613 430 14
VCDI 0 16 28 103 488 4090 38412 53963
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58818 22491 2670 644 282 86 21 0
OW 57 280 220 292 187 87 17 0
VODI 0 182 119 282 281 208 52 0
ODI 0 106 73 121 321 319 133 0
CDI 0 46 38 116 316 704 547 19
VCDI 0 33 30 118 496 4002 38276 53958

Date: 2023-03-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58967 22271 2534 666 247 88 13 0
OW 54 333 166 347 245 127 13 0
VODI 0 189 99 261 311 232 43 0
ODI 0 80 45 132 315 304 111 0
CDI 0 35 26 95 406 551 378 34
VCDI 0 4 25 76 707 4664 33867 57987
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58967 22306 2515 690 330 128 20 0
OW 54 311 186 289 204 134 13 0
VODI 0 178 97 269 277 259 58 0
ODI 0 83 49 140 333 291 174 18
CDI 0 31 27 108 380 622 541 76
VCDI 0 3 21 81 707 4532 33619 57927


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