Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-03-09

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-03-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56140 21359 6753 762 94 12 23 0
OW 55 228 362 387 169 36 9 0
VODI 0 150 199 450 285 136 30 0
ODI 0 202 59 391 365 190 43 0
CDI 0 70 64 320 750 917 298 0
VCDI 0 122 111 433 1479 6502 33962 53131
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-03-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56415 23723 4156 551 102 18 33 0
OW 52 231 372 388 162 38 16 0
VODI 0 96 169 515 290 129 49 0
ODI 0 37 59 313 391 237 86 0
CDI 0 44 47 218 676 787 426 5
VCDI 0 69 80 264 1173 6360 37754 50517
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-03-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59305 17222 7859 481 86 20 33 0
OW 52 386 339 359 97 12 6 0
VODI 0 185 229 437 285 69 12 0
ODI 0 76 101 352 371 172 68 0
CDI 0 28 60 236 600 784 271 10
VCDI 0 20 59 264 1283 6601 36874 51344
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-03-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57776 20084 6416 530 79 28 48 0
OW 53 322 297 463 156 12 6 0
VODI 0 161 202 400 349 74 9 0
ODI 0 60 120 243 358 220 18 0
CDI 0 48 98 227 526 734 200 7
VCDI 0 112 178 408 1300 7775 37950 49001
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57776 20027 6439 564 84 28 52 0
OW 53 354 267 418 151 10 3 0
VODI 0 191 197 391 347 84 8 0
ODI 0 54 124 238 348 214 18 0
CDI 0 47 102 234 516 738 210 3
VCDI 0 114 182 426 1322 7769 37940 49005

Date: 2023-03-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57305 23831 3464 502 87 15 18 0
OW 55 488 230 383 114 21 4 0
VODI 2 310 169 384 296 83 8 0
ODI 0 154 100 256 289 178 28 0
CDI 0 160 63 256 372 550 165 3
VCDI 0 224 140 494 1350 6145 35777 52575
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57305 23751 3475 514 92 15 20 0
OW 55 549 213 364 107 19 2 0
VODI 2 333 165 384 276 84 6 0
ODI 0 162 108 256 275 178 29 0
CDI 0 139 57 246 386 555 166 5
VCDI 0 233 148 511 1372 6141 35777 52573

Date: 2023-03-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58549 23308 2739 525 99 31 10 0
OW 52 426 286 418 127 42 9 0
VODI 0 313 178 511 306 83 4 0
ODI 0 177 38 201 401 198 41 0
CDI 0 91 27 117 391 791 473 1
VCDI 0 145 105 321 993 5021 31020 58480
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58549 22972 2726 565 127 44 15 0
OW 52 566 177 329 128 46 5 0
VODI 0 437 213 353 250 129 9 0
ODI 0 210 114 259 261 194 45 0
CDI 0 107 47 202 354 549 321 3
VCDI 0 168 96 385 1197 5204 31162 58478

Date: 2023-03-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62322 20792 1238 590 141 52 31 0
OW 58 429 250 399 158 40 9 0
VODI 2 222 170 371 346 83 14 0
ODI 0 131 73 197 419 186 31 0
CDI 0 77 44 148 388 811 504 61
VCDI 0 149 141 345 1315 5255 29303 59753
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62322 20433 1186 590 172 59 36 0
OW 58 571 214 287 138 57 6 0
VODI 2 458 239 356 297 129 17 0
ODI 0 188 101 273 350 218 48 0
CDI 0 74 93 160 419 730 433 12
VCDI 0 76 83 384 1391 5234 29352 59802

Date: 2023-03-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61025 21109 1914 670 236 87 39 0
OW 52 406 226 344 184 102 14 0
VODI 0 166 112 300 375 191 29 0
ODI 0 98 34 158 352 325 92 14
CDI 0 62 31 102 289 964 563 122
VCDI 0 58 41 135 682 4464 35866 55015
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61025 20788 1810 607 237 119 41 0
OW 52 458 242 271 189 104 16 0
VODI 0 419 184 378 327 231 55 0
ODI 0 130 74 205 302 355 191 9
CDI 0 86 26 131 374 957 850 95
VCDI 0 18 22 117 689 4367 35450 55047


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