Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-03-02

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-02-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 52023 26212 6355 754 191 17 7 0
OW 52 378 259 290 166 18 2 0
VODI 0 219 230 350 297 63 35 0
ODI 0 97 113 332 355 122 38 0
CDI 0 90 65 256 662 545 277 1
VCDI 0 166 126 414 1834 7759 39993 45885
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-02-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 53466 25389 5471 641 220 43 25 0
OW 52 416 249 361 190 32 5 0
VODI 0 257 181 369 306 122 11 0
ODI 0 111 136 256 332 188 32 0
CDI 0 72 88 263 576 759 360 11
VCDI 0 192 267 524 1731 7073 38018 48253
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-02-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 54091 22521 7785 888 178 13 13 0
OW 52 448 280 318 200 37 7 0
VODI 0 284 168 424 324 97 16 0
ODI 0 100 50 266 452 200 19 0
CDI 0 100 47 160 768 840 236 8
VCDI 0 194 257 469 1648 6693 33346 53051
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-03-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56246 20824 7093 796 126 15 23 0
OW 54 215 361 416 185 47 12 0
VODI 0 217 163 478 351 134 29 0
ODI 0 140 66 306 415 227 47 0
CDI 0 71 52 322 851 860 327 1
VCDI 0 82 150 497 1424 6258 36582 50585
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56245 20821 7102 809 130 23 24 0
OW 55 207 355 385 170 39 8 0
VODI 0 206 160 492 354 126 36 0
ODI 0 142 54 292 398 219 50 0
CDI 0 83 56 315 801 817 321 1
VCDI 0 90 158 522 1499 6317 36581 50585

Date: 2023-03-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56206 23344 4549 824 91 14 16 0
OW 52 219 354 400 150 42 11 0
VODI 0 131 182 485 268 128 40 0
ODI 0 88 43 395 352 211 61 0
CDI 0 161 27 261 732 832 368 1
VCDI 0 89 109 350 1372 6562 35126 52402
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56206 23339 4585 848 122 18 17 0
OW 52 224 331 364 121 38 11 0
VODI 0 131 170 493 255 119 49 0
ODI 0 93 40 389 358 206 57 0
CDI 0 159 24 246 653 752 342 0
VCDI 0 86 114 375 1456 6656 35146 52403

Date: 2023-03-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57484 22334 4455 466 64 16 28 0
OW 52 506 342 342 81 21 9 0
VODI 0 148 229 518 289 71 34 0
ODI 0 50 81 372 487 239 66 0
CDI 0 36 75 270 630 1386 412 3
VCDI 0 34 38 167 905 5549 37286 51473
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57484 22466 4561 510 112 44 43 0
OW 52 328 242 353 107 58 33 0
VODI 0 182 213 440 259 108 80 0
ODI 0 40 88 303 346 203 78 0
CDI 0 34 38 239 439 817 445 10
VCDI 0 58 78 290 1193 6052 37156 51466

Date: 2023-03-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60624 19790 3949 531 79 13 21 0
OW 52 360 276 409 158 12 6 0
VODI 0 176 161 419 347 81 14 0
ODI 0 70 83 261 401 182 35 0
CDI 0 38 83 208 600 745 269 3
VCDI 0 79 69 305 1103 7127 40297 47612
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60624 19822 4031 603 130 48 48 0
OW 52 346 206 435 182 47 37 0
VODI 0 187 136 379 389 193 74 0
ODI 0 43 86 211 361 228 127 0
CDI 0 27 68 159 449 574 316 10
VCDI 0 88 94 346 1177 7070 40040 47605

Date: 2023-03-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58667 19487 6385 452 75 12 17 0
OW 52 446 253 412 131 13 5 0
VODI 0 272 161 450 272 64 5 0
ODI 0 111 107 243 328 153 21 0
CDI 0 135 100 236 454 579 156 1
VCDI 0 144 195 529 1530 7441 38293 48661
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58667 19339 6435 567 158 30 21 0
OW 52 575 209 414 191 72 5 0
VODI 0 280 174 390 306 140 56 0
ODI 0 140 87 216 268 155 86 1
CDI 0 81 75 202 344 386 225 76
VCDI 0 180 221 533 1523 7479 38104 48585


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