Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-02-23

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-02-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58420 21106 5923 599 149 30 2 0
OW 51 351 280 325 163 21 7 0
VODI 0 229 244 376 337 74 11 0
ODI 0 85 145 322 388 168 39 0
CDI 0 50 88 279 444 592 165 8
VCDI 0 174 382 979 1662 5683 30843 55854
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-02-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61558 21777 1667 595 162 39 0 0
OW 52 361 284 340 191 33 5 0
VODI 0 277 211 444 311 101 6 0
ODI 0 117 113 319 450 179 14 0
CDI 0 84 61 250 704 515 160 8
VCDI 0 282 232 688 1873 7169 32059 53357
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-02-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58431 23809 2355 996 126 18 26 0
OW 52 275 218 437 202 13 7 0
VODI 0 157 141 487 461 80 14 0
ODI 0 83 78 376 595 198 19 0
CDI 0 53 41 216 748 661 185 10
VCDI 0 10 73 336 1220 6120 28096 59625
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-02-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 52841 26878 5013 691 91 11 17 0
OW 52 332 267 362 167 7 8 0
VODI 0 204 169 473 305 61 58 0
ODI 0 109 75 316 469 158 44 0
CDI 0 87 53 214 731 603 289 1
VCDI 0 109 99 344 1229 6101 32813 55197
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 52841 26878 5024 735 105 11 15 0
OW 52 345 271 365 166 9 10 0
VODI 0 190 150 446 321 62 58 0
ODI 0 104 86 279 447 132 42 0
CDI 0 77 41 242 704 598 254 1
VCDI 0 125 104 333 1249 6129 32850 55197

Date: 2023-02-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57025 25074 2646 560 187 16 5 0
OW 52 424 210 318 162 28 5 0
VODI 0 261 155 365 314 77 5 0
ODI 0 109 101 231 360 168 35 2
CDI 0 83 50 254 556 615 249 14
VCDI 0 204 155 420 1884 7541 43705 42423
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57025 25094 2654 548 211 19 5 0
OW 52 417 203 324 147 36 5 0
VODI 0 249 160 370 277 83 4 0
ODI 0 107 97 243 362 153 38 2
CDI 0 77 50 240 585 594 250 19
VCDI 0 211 153 423 1881 7560 43702 42418

Date: 2023-02-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 52301 20649 11477 773 158 28 26 0
OW 52 525 246 405 201 6 3 0
VODI 0 234 203 440 373 94 8 0
ODI 0 95 141 300 505 222 23 0
CDI 0 86 64 169 656 810 319 2
VCDI 0 97 266 480 1545 7981 35688 49397
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 52301 20437 11397 713 220 29 25 0
OW 52 435 247 320 214 40 5 0
VODI 0 276 227 376 253 103 24 0
ODI 0 122 130 278 327 161 43 0
CDI 0 92 72 280 573 883 355 30
VCDI 0 324 324 600 1851 7925 35615 49369

Date: 2023-03-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55241 25864 2996 915 171 20 37 0
OW 52 284 289 439 201 51 14 0
VODI 0 207 186 478 399 117 28 0
ODI 0 55 75 210 511 224 35 0
CDI 0 73 42 235 937 894 220 24
VCDI 0 126 237 423 1312 6095 35326 52005
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55241 25775 2956 783 192 59 42 0
OW 52 292 254 406 218 57 24 0
VODI 0 132 159 451 354 167 44 0
ODI 0 85 59 279 429 219 99 0
CDI 0 82 51 243 886 941 269 16
VCDI 0 243 346 538 1452 5958 35182 52013

Date: 2023-03-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56140 21359 6753 762 94 12 23 0
OW 55 228 362 387 169 36 9 0
VODI 0 150 199 450 285 136 30 0
ODI 0 202 59 391 365 190 43 0
CDI 0 70 64 320 750 917 298 0
VCDI 0 122 111 433 1479 6502 33962 53131
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56137 21157 6577 745 136 25 28 0
OW 57 316 359 310 166 74 17 0
VODI 1 181 289 395 259 139 44 0
ODI 0 100 113 353 293 205 84 0
CDI 0 124 47 389 696 885 275 20
VCDI 0 253 163 551 1592 6465 33917 53111


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