Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-01-05

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-12-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62628 22563 4380 370 202 355 59 0
OW 109 777 210 174 105 109 17 0
VODI 3 429 258 359 283 129 15 0
ODI 0 161 169 345 452 287 19 0
CDI 0 75 104 285 674 784 183 18
VCDI 0 40 236 393 1254 7069 33200 47766
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-01-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55779 25365 7874 413 236 323 61 0
OW 67 936 174 250 127 114 21 0
VODI 0 660 171 275 298 142 35 0
ODI 0 298 129 234 393 238 38 0
CDI 0 201 88 227 683 692 194 8
VCDI 0 298 338 562 1594 6365 32003 49144
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-01-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60748 23839 4580 464 190 186 3 0
OW 104 450 288 239 160 72 39 0
VODI 4 314 221 347 278 116 63 0
ODI 0 213 159 265 334 241 44 0
CDI 0 97 131 333 448 769 173 9
VCDI 0 124 192 698 1340 4741 33046 50986
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-01-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59980 21493 7222 391 169 117 74 0
OW 60 500 411 226 96 25 25 0
VODI 0 281 275 451 223 103 81 0
ODI 0 180 181 302 270 201 51 0
CDI 0 128 135 397 395 610 194 15
VCDI 0 158 184 504 1195 5659 32497 51589
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59980 21585 7248 385 168 116 80 0
OW 60 396 388 242 93 34 30 0
VODI 0 277 282 404 228 97 84 0
ODI 0 188 171 324 266 203 47 0
CDI 0 122 128 368 409 645 195 15
VCDI 0 172 191 548 1184 5620 32486 51589

Date: 2023-01-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63643 23115 1763 329 136 109 69 0
OW 73 563 255 291 71 29 8 0
VODI 0 331 206 361 268 135 62 0
ODI 0 153 149 247 208 262 114 0
CDI 0 113 126 368 462 454 212 8
VCDI 0 68 114 508 1060 4779 26203 59623
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63643 23229 1778 335 142 119 70 0
OW 73 443 262 293 105 27 11 0
VODI 0 315 171 335 201 130 75 0
ODI 0 161 147 251 199 236 107 0
CDI 0 120 132 368 452 517 219 13
VCDI 0 75 123 522 1106 4739 26186 59618

Date: 2023-01-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59995 23960 5146 233 95 74 92 0
OW 60 312 390 321 83 22 20 0
VODI 0 201 271 583 223 35 26 0
ODI 0 74 91 313 438 75 32 0
CDI 0 62 94 361 521 662 128 4
VCDI 0 25 37 222 794 4084 26470 60419
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59990 23209 4961 313 151 105 123 0
OW 65 685 336 235 85 26 30 0
VODI 0 328 296 275 182 74 79 0
ODI 0 165 175 266 137 137 148 0
CDI 0 132 129 359 327 372 226 6
VCDI 0 115 132 585 1272 4238 26162 60417

Date: 2023-01-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59404 25209 4273 203 93 81 79 0
OW 75 511 375 193 50 24 28 0
VODI 0 329 311 355 185 48 21 0
ODI 0 95 152 276 299 74 22 0
CDI 0 60 122 210 352 294 157 0
VCDI 0 22 193 498 1095 5497 35973 49810
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59384 24629 4123 200 128 111 121 0
OW 90 828 330 212 65 39 20 0
VODI 5 384 317 263 210 87 65 0
ODI 0 164 196 238 151 133 109 0
CDI 0 121 173 205 325 361 179 0
VCDI 0 100 287 617 1195 5287 35786 49810

Date: 2023-01-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57885 23009 7250 248 102 63 54 0
OW 79 614 407 182 74 39 31 0
VODI 1 414 380 326 178 57 13 0
ODI 0 105 189 296 248 101 33 0
CDI 0 64 106 269 340 310 153 0
VCDI 0 49 207 627 1201 5749 38905 46690
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57875 22704 7106 303 133 126 105 0
OW 87 716 513 201 96 47 14 0
VODI 3 448 378 302 259 75 67 0
ODI 0 165 164 210 189 99 130 0
CDI 0 90 105 219 293 301 306 11
VCDI 0 132 273 713 1173 5671 38567 46679


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