Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-12-22

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-12-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67103 18927 5973 553 280 319 28 0
OW 60 433 369 477 332 56 43 0
VODI 0 175 282 510 590 360 102 0
ODI 0 72 156 455 781 789 61 0
CDI 0 19 74 216 861 1822 278 0
VCDI 0 41 36 186 1501 11356 30982 40390
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-12-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66743 19042 5803 548 338 261 21 0
OW 61 428 401 386 356 80 23 0
VODI 0 180 305 522 598 337 151 0
ODI 0 87 155 397 624 568 274 0
CDI 0 34 94 212 563 1305 870 1
VCDI 0 21 72 330 950 10967 32850 40090
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-12-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65272 22093 4064 525 255 238 9 0
OW 61 257 359 444 223 57 2 0
VODI 0 135 279 643 757 143 11 0
ODI 0 38 79 418 1096 566 58 0
CDI 0 17 42 171 557 1366 471 4
VCDI 0 6 56 208 744 8698 32997 43629
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-12-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64433 21539 5038 363 193 362 48 0
OW 63 321 288 387 152 66 32 0
VODI 0 142 282 524 364 137 26 0
ODI 0 51 74 377 848 564 76 0
CDI 0 22 26 236 692 1145 517 15
VCDI 0 5 19 170 975 8306 36344 41826
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64433 21581 5079 404 208 378 52 0
OW 63 290 275 360 151 60 29 0
VODI 0 127 251 540 431 174 26 0
ODI 0 57 78 348 802 617 59 0
CDI 0 21 27 239 694 1116 449 21
VCDI 0 4 17 166 938 8235 36428 41820

Date: 2022-12-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65308 19673 5340 352 195 407 42 0
OW 57 417 346 332 129 46 39 0
VODI 0 166 209 517 304 92 25 0
ODI 0 45 108 638 616 227 36 0
CDI 0 35 43 400 1089 868 184 15
VCDI 0 4 53 230 1020 8461 32771 46209
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65309 19765 5346 349 202 410 49 0
OW 56 350 348 344 108 39 32 0
VODI 0 137 192 537 345 101 28 0
ODI 0 48 105 569 567 285 36 0
CDI 0 35 52 334 1054 829 204 15
VCDI 0 5 56 336 1077 8437 32748 46209

Date: 2022-12-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67108 19939 3607 321 134 342 23 0
OW 63 334 389 288 126 65 15 0
VODI 0 224 296 847 345 97 29 0
ODI 0 113 107 541 610 297 32 0
CDI 0 31 38 198 749 848 128 6
VCDI 0 9 102 233 832 6495 34583 46504
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67101 19563 3434 291 178 406 39 0
OW 70 576 375 250 113 50 27 0
VODI 0 260 368 507 269 148 24 0
ODI 0 149 161 516 451 242 40 0
CDI 0 75 83 503 626 643 176 0
VCDI 0 27 118 361 1159 6655 34504 46510

Date: 2022-12-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62310 24121 3641 398 162 361 30 0
OW 73 558 261 268 125 102 11 0
VODI 2 223 257 478 298 141 15 0
ODI 0 83 110 449 548 362 35 0
CDI 0 45 44 227 507 834 301 3
VCDI 0 40 62 262 1042 7095 32088 49076
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62309 23704 3576 359 205 490 48 0
OW 74 681 169 190 90 91 22 0
VODI 2 407 294 385 248 259 60 0
ODI 0 111 162 427 329 226 99 0
CDI 0 81 77 380 547 664 351 6
VCDI 0 86 97 341 1263 7165 31900 49073

Date: 2022-12-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64976 20942 3657 366 202 355 59 0
OW 110 783 204 173 105 109 17 0
VODI 3 439 249 358 283 129 15 0
ODI 0 171 159 345 452 287 19 0
CDI 0 75 106 283 674 784 183 18
VCDI 0 40 236 393 1254 7069 33200 47766
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64892 20464 3649 397 265 463 75 0
OW 161 616 159 150 108 133 17 0
VODI 36 563 150 249 237 230 51 0
ODI 0 327 156 209 325 258 77 0
CDI 0 252 123 280 522 676 256 44
VCDI 0 228 374 633 1513 6973 33017 47740


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