Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-12-08

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-12-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66588 28796 5170 560 303 79 72 0
OW 39 1090 609 478 278 63 8 0
VODI 12 445 551 578 452 284 25 0
ODI 0 165 231 348 386 428 53 0
CDI 0 44 120 279 485 877 250 8
VCDI 0 29 95 285 1102 8100 33879 33404
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-12-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66728 26779 5484 507 384 129 37 0
OW 92 1033 952 502 332 165 6 0
VODI 10 601 565 735 399 390 53 0
ODI 1 194 236 486 467 409 72 0
CDI 0 51 110 343 654 851 194 10
VCDI 0 20 91 376 1154 11615 33285 30546
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-12-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65944 22696 9479 963 446 184 34 0
OW 38 1001 568 852 397 84 14 0
VODI 0 483 447 848 903 294 11 0
ODI 0 132 189 344 630 618 181 0
CDI 0 90 109 234 489 1364 363 14
VCDI 0 40 100 372 1261 11921 37202 25709
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-12-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63895 23913 7477 837 609 245 41 0
OW 51 616 604 737 664 196 11 0
VODI 0 312 290 803 1118 770 68 0
ODI 0 124 138 300 918 860 125 0
CDI 0 50 68 219 599 1507 433 15
VCDI 0 31 45 255 706 9969 36349 31080
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63895 23910 7570 921 662 279 41 0
OW 51 656 502 684 704 202 12 0
VODI 0 305 323 787 1055 768 79 0
ODI 0 110 124 273 863 821 100 0
CDI 0 41 58 235 659 1487 427 15
VCDI 0 24 45 251 671 9990 36368 31080

Date: 2022-12-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68418 22956 2495 621 545 380 48 0
OW 52 494 460 719 695 319 7 0
VODI 0 238 165 614 1057 757 75 0
ODI 0 114 83 314 1099 919 142 0
CDI 0 68 55 202 978 1515 434 1
VCDI 0 33 50 151 780 7911 33107 37977
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68418 22907 2505 770 689 426 49 0
OW 52 530 444 609 634 306 15 0
VODI 0 272 187 603 967 740 76 0
ODI 0 105 80 300 1022 942 157 0
CDI 0 64 43 186 1031 1501 383 1
VCDI 0 25 49 153 811 7886 33133 37977

Date: 2022-12-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67855 18612 7021 648 412 305 31 0
OW 59 266 546 553 170 72 21 0
VODI 0 112 295 888 772 309 33 0
ODI 0 39 85 460 1779 1276 30 0
CDI 0 13 40 148 1229 2492 341 0
VCDI 0 4 7 94 662 10487 36990 31892
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67854 18192 6850 750 653 560 75 0
OW 60 438 542 589 536 392 20 0
VODI 0 270 346 570 737 864 103 0
ODI 0 93 141 370 809 976 149 0
CDI 0 42 71 269 1147 1601 370 8
VCDI 0 11 44 243 1142 10548 36729 31884

Date: 2022-12-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64661 20788 7343 618 379 208 12 0
OW 60 397 397 388 267 66 31 0
VODI 0 199 203 561 727 342 19 0
ODI 0 43 68 298 1429 896 19 0
CDI 0 24 35 195 1708 1609 406 18
VCDI 0 3 7 124 1001 9967 35572 35960
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64656 20436 7188 587 485 387 43 0
OW 65 563 442 441 527 246 22 0
VODI 0 261 252 448 942 620 32 0
ODI 0 130 80 249 999 895 128 0
CDI 0 53 63 190 1145 1535 433 35
VCDI 0 11 28 269 1413 9405 35401 35943

Date: 2022-12-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67103 18927 5973 553 280 319 28 0
OW 60 433 369 477 332 56 43 0
VODI 0 175 282 510 590 360 102 0
ODI 0 72 156 455 781 789 61 0
CDI 0 19 74 216 861 1822 278 0
VCDI 0 41 36 186 1501 11356 30982 40390
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67103 18661 5661 580 359 488 122 0
OW 60 477 472 459 322 383 69 0
VODI 0 312 274 466 708 648 92 0
ODI 0 122 203 283 547 851 139 0
CDI 0 60 113 247 739 1668 433 58
VCDI 0 35 167 362 1670 10664 30639 40332


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