Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-12-01

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-11-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79861 19186 3545 859 345 58 32 0
OW 80 771 681 511 308 56 3 0
VODI 11 269 245 539 559 133 3 0
ODI 0 73 42 250 699 317 10 0
CDI 0 29 22 106 668 881 292 7
VCDI 0 7 27 123 769 7106 29606 37959
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-11-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76364 22279 2913 657 471 76 59 0
OW 76 872 652 587 386 136 1 0
VODI 30 329 221 419 438 437 7 0
ODI 0 81 61 263 331 577 72 0
CDI 0 44 26 99 403 1044 368 3
VCDI 0 1 36 116 522 6657 33581 35353
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-11-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74991 22057 4291 744 240 140 101 0
OW 74 604 672 467 332 80 6 0
VODI 10 284 337 728 556 194 4 0
ODI 0 71 67 354 585 477 15 0
CDI 0 21 33 161 501 1156 197 0
VCDI 0 3 29 98 732 8315 32874 34447
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-12-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67112 27835 5700 738 241 83 40 0
OW 50 756 721 618 206 93 3 0
VODI 0 326 475 723 561 204 17 0
ODI 0 87 158 358 563 319 19 0
CDI 0 41 52 180 613 1008 107 2
VCDI 0 29 71 163 881 8401 30579 36915
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67127 28029 5934 901 258 84 39 0
OW 35 577 592 590 208 101 3 0
VODI 0 306 399 633 568 179 15 0
ODI 0 85 133 310 544 282 16 0
CDI 0 48 49 181 608 1004 124 6
VCDI 0 29 70 165 879 8458 30568 36911

Date: 2022-12-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66732 28199 4828 440 366 114 66 0
OW 39 1127 739 470 323 126 7 0
VODI 9 455 517 556 553 481 25 0
ODI 2 138 222 331 392 527 95 0
CDI 0 47 147 271 386 1003 356 4
VCDI 0 18 101 400 973 11490 38221 25752
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66732 28438 5044 560 472 158 73 0
OW 39 912 621 439 263 112 1 0
VODI 9 451 450 534 544 420 18 0
ODI 2 120 190 293 396 526 79 0
CDI 0 41 139 246 347 990 364 2
VCDI 0 22 110 396 971 11535 38235 25754

Date: 2022-12-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60163 30041 9092 665 326 141 31 0
OW 56 908 756 652 246 50 20 0
VODI 9 542 637 939 650 229 15 0
ODI 0 204 237 388 597 692 123 0
CDI 0 104 142 224 466 1312 375 0
VCDI 0 16 82 286 1184 11870 32588 29990
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60151 29735 8804 722 454 222 73 0
OW 62 954 764 423 236 111 32 0
VODI 15 691 742 795 436 348 82 0
ODI 0 231 261 490 428 393 148 0
CDI 0 123 172 242 485 738 166 0
VCDI 0 81 203 482 1430 12482 32651 29990

Date: 2022-12-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66757 20309 9263 1022 498 134 22 0
OW 50 772 818 863 633 59 12 0
VODI 0 375 502 874 1267 375 20 0
ODI 0 91 157 423 793 582 110 0
CDI 0 52 82 284 499 1210 604 19
VCDI 0 16 79 334 1153 12032 34551 29352
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66757 20311 9249 1076 684 152 36 0
OW 50 629 775 729 532 163 18 0
VODI 0 411 453 728 1109 439 163 0
ODI 0 146 135 506 738 665 228 0
CDI 0 63 133 299 586 1003 327 23
VCDI 0 55 156 462 1194 11970 34547 29348

Date: 2022-12-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66186 25580 2678 667 620 388 28 0
OW 52 474 533 700 737 275 9 0
VODI 0 268 172 533 1124 868 106 0
ODI 0 126 87 274 901 1133 176 0
CDI 0 59 45 170 505 1692 484 3
VCDI 0 51 51 169 565 8849 35202 34508
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66186 25237 2593 698 772 535 39 0
OW 52 541 467 516 624 335 54 0
VODI 0 422 245 572 1207 927 141 0
ODI 0 158 127 332 619 1142 407 0
CDI 0 94 54 131 546 1524 600 19
VCDI 0 106 80 264 684 8742 34764 34492


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