Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2022-11-24

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-11-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2458 5790 2117 228 68 13 0 0
OW 26 323 181 198 138 35 1 0
VODI 2 176 92 250 243 47 1 0
ODI 0 59 60 115 335 101 3 0
CDI 0 19 50 109 363 262 7 0
VCDI 0 5 10 158 1022 5688 13541 11572
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-11-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2256 6380 678 319 107 11 0 0
OW 55 335 162 317 257 70 16 0
VODI 5 107 54 224 306 300 3 0
ODI 0 39 18 95 268 318 3 0
CDI 0 17 20 46 296 496 34 1
VCDI 0 0 15 68 764 6827 11685 12894
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-11-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 172 6172 2230 325 30 0 0 0
OW 53 373 243 292 90 0 0 0
VODI 13 95 61 281 369 58 0 0
ODI 0 27 16 69 451 285 38 0
CDI 0 13 19 44 400 592 57 0
VCDI 0 0 17 105 547 6854 9383 16092
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-11-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96 5925 1604 448 179 0 0 0
OW 18 567 336 266 142 11 0 0
VODI 10 161 70 322 316 37 0 0
ODI 0 21 8 83 388 121 18 0
CDI 0 6 17 38 295 300 116 0
VCDI 0 0 2 58 380 5130 12044 16333
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96 6028 1733 527 168 0 0 0
OW 7 477 206 267 196 9 0 0
VODI 21 150 74 254 327 39 0 0
ODI 0 17 6 73 374 122 6 0
CDI 0 8 18 31 278 314 114 0
VCDI 0 0 0 63 357 5115 12058 16333

Date: 2022-11-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 224 5769 706 409 155 0 0 0
OW 36 762 390 374 241 33 0 0
VODI 33 211 114 192 268 160 1 0
ODI 0 54 17 105 195 281 12 0
CDI 0 22 3 44 198 342 88 1
VCDI 0 3 7 39 365 4030 12843 17139
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 215 5955 885 503 192 2 0 0
OW 33 512 246 330 224 53 0 0
VODI 45 262 65 175 280 189 1 0
ODI 0 65 31 84 183 257 14 0
CDI 0 26 5 32 158 353 77 1
VCDI 0 1 5 39 385 3992 12852 17139

Date: 2022-11-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1575 3967 849 209 40 4 0 0
OW 49 353 395 307 195 70 0 0
VODI 5 161 102 414 425 117 0 0
ODI 0 36 7 88 336 457 10 0
CDI 0 9 8 6 87 752 126 0
VCDI 0 0 1 14 183 3194 14899 16416
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1589 3687 926 364 145 36 0 0
OW 32 468 314 332 314 82 0 0
VODI 8 302 102 226 331 291 0 0
ODI 0 53 7 72 158 380 35 0
CDI 0 12 6 16 91 470 156 0
VCDI 0 4 7 28 227 3335 14844 16416

Date: 2022-11-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 22 3626 1955 134 52 2 0 0
OW 17 578 409 408 186 55 14 0
VODI 1 183 228 376 328 202 45 0
ODI 0 34 44 188 239 292 6 0
CDI 0 18 6 78 190 610 78 0
VCDI 0 5 5 32 178 3143 15076 16823
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10 3502 1813 270 124 20 3 0
OW 11 460 540 378 163 71 43 0
VODI 15 336 239 318 337 255 18 0
ODI 4 111 42 164 209 302 25 0
CDI 0 24 7 44 153 451 71 0
VCDI 0 11 6 42 187 3205 15059 16823

Date: 2022-12-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 4088 909 169 81 4 0 0
OW 4 677 348 341 213 41 0 0
VODI 12 237 313 345 318 239 18 0
ODI 0 100 101 184 198 281 43 0
CDI 0 14 43 106 238 480 171 0
VCDI 0 9 20 89 243 2918 13913 18358
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 3585 769 171 171 24 0 0
OW 0 762 383 253 199 86 0 0
VODI 9 476 323 351 301 394 22 0
ODI 7 221 140 184 143 256 98 0
CDI 0 65 89 162 138 237 135 0
VCDI 0 16 30 113 339 2966 13890 18358


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