Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-11-24

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-11-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76691 23585 6492 638 149 42 1 0
OW 55 458 501 487 251 44 1 0
VODI 2 242 274 562 482 88 1 0
ODI 0 81 137 405 606 194 3 0
CDI 0 31 75 296 711 649 83 0
VCDI 0 11 28 266 1784 10667 31912 28063
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-11-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83630 18883 2885 623 214 48 3 0
OW 85 508 470 515 440 77 17 0
VODI 5 207 239 512 574 348 3 0
ODI 0 63 84 276 528 440 3 0
CDI 0 23 43 211 714 908 72 18
VCDI 0 5 34 168 1399 11275 30290 30208
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-11-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81296 19648 3553 765 143 28 27 0
OW 85 588 449 513 276 16 0 0
VODI 13 157 213 537 713 139 1 0
ODI 0 52 54 215 756 510 40 0
CDI 0 24 34 112 700 1327 115 2
VCDI 0 7 60 169 976 10475 22137 40123
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-11-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78807 20265 4101 836 313 54 25 0
OW 53 783 533 512 266 44 0 0
VODI 10 223 194 594 660 129 0 0
ODI 0 45 34 259 718 320 20 0
CDI 0 18 23 93 653 1007 248 0
VCDI 0 11 28 120 653 8359 27282 38755
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78808 20390 4252 941 318 57 25 0
OW 41 659 379 492 323 40 0 0
VODI 21 221 201 507 637 125 1 0
ODI 0 42 31 258 673 329 10 0
CDI 0 22 24 90 672 951 237 0
VCDI 0 11 26 126 640 8411 27302 38755

Date: 2022-11-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76996 21667 3429 747 315 63 39 0
OW 71 1026 591 580 335 79 13 0
VODI 33 320 267 431 489 249 11 0
ODI 0 76 73 278 490 455 40 0
CDI 0 37 17 141 544 934 313 5
VCDI 0 24 40 110 674 6641 32546 35859
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76987 21894 3619 852 364 65 39 0
OW 68 725 433 536 309 100 12 0
VODI 45 375 216 406 491 276 15 0
ODI 0 90 89 248 455 422 39 0
CDI 0 44 21 133 483 891 277 5
VCDI 0 22 39 112 745 6667 32580 35859

Date: 2022-11-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77813 20963 3200 572 255 106 83 0
OW 84 497 683 510 274 107 5 0
VODI 5 210 241 728 634 189 5 0
ODI 0 48 49 253 661 621 47 0
CDI 0 15 15 70 368 1367 288 4
VCDI 0 0 10 77 419 6605 33260 35707
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77827 20511 3178 699 359 149 88 0
OW 67 687 572 481 396 120 0 0
VODI 8 415 295 463 495 368 12 0
ODI 0 87 91 271 353 502 73 0
CDI 0 28 33 148 397 814 284 12
VCDI 0 5 29 148 611 7042 33231 35699

Date: 2022-11-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78513 18131 4095 841 275 113 63 0
OW 52 865 632 630 247 99 15 0
VODI 1 307 386 629 498 269 49 0
ODI 0 86 102 349 457 443 30 0
CDI 0 39 45 182 512 1094 255 8
VCDI 0 10 51 146 850 8838 31627 35214
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78501 17798 3875 978 360 156 66 0
OW 46 805 733 553 217 113 44 0
VODI 15 530 434 559 500 318 25 0
ODI 4 187 136 323 396 471 37 0
CDI 0 79 45 160 435 885 233 0
VCDI 0 39 88 204 931 8913 31634 35222

Date: 2022-12-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66588 28796 5170 560 303 79 72 0
OW 39 1090 609 478 278 63 8 0
VODI 12 445 551 578 452 284 25 0
ODI 0 165 231 348 386 428 53 0
CDI 0 44 120 279 485 877 250 8
VCDI 0 29 95 285 1102 8100 33879 33404
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66573 27864 4932 562 397 110 78 0
OW 50 1287 567 369 260 103 3 0
VODI 9 824 561 499 417 475 25 0
ODI 7 378 303 316 268 375 116 0
CDI 0 157 235 343 390 600 241 0
VCDI 0 59 178 439 1274 8168 33824 33412


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