Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-11-17

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-11-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76405 28327 4579 515 214 82 13 0
OW 36 519 496 512 228 39 13 0
VODI 9 264 297 438 510 124 30 0
ODI 0 122 99 246 545 283 48 0
CDI 4 49 37 145 670 976 195 0
VCDI 0 7 16 127 930 8404 35063 25432
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-11-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83454 22281 2213 470 179 117 13 0
OW 37 604 425 643 307 30 16 0
VODI 3 366 189 399 607 142 31 0
ODI 0 201 96 225 439 348 49 0
CDI 0 153 108 132 488 898 244 0
VCDI 0 19 14 68 610 5866 38325 26239
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-11-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78202 27224 2257 708 226 54 11 0
OW 39 355 374 418 330 56 1 0
VODI 0 219 230 523 445 134 4 0
ODI 0 104 97 274 502 290 10 0
CDI 0 40 74 269 638 856 208 0
VCDI 0 12 8 154 1032 6338 31601 32731
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-11-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74324 25969 6930 619 170 16 0 0
OW 60 412 477 457 252 21 1 0
VODI 3 259 236 604 464 76 2 0
ODI 0 97 142 391 574 160 1 0
CDI 0 57 50 281 738 604 51 0
VCDI 0 32 32 275 1681 10156 28631 31743
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74325 26036 6966 663 221 27 0 0
OW 61 352 428 433 213 24 1 0
VODI 1 250 242 573 489 75 2 0
ODI 0 86 126 370 536 160 3 0
CDI 0 67 66 277 708 510 48 0
VCDI 0 35 39 311 1712 10237 28632 31743

Date: 2022-11-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80142 22334 3609 599 217 54 1 0
OW 78 375 605 422 426 78 6 0
VODI 4 205 341 455 585 201 3 0
ODI 0 61 91 363 559 328 10 0
CDI 0 24 52 303 695 679 131 2
VCDI 0 6 26 244 1794 12591 33302 25047
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80163 22349 3710 623 314 82 4 0
OW 57 366 509 390 328 66 3 0
VODI 4 202 329 432 563 211 3 0
ODI 0 61 93 356 522 311 11 0
CDI 0 20 49 304 711 638 112 5
VCDI 0 7 34 281 1838 12623 33320 25044

Date: 2022-11-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81906 19113 4002 606 149 43 16 0
OW 87 548 444 541 309 15 1 0
VODI 4 157 181 605 786 162 3 0
ODI 0 51 62 258 766 616 41 0
CDI 0 9 40 104 673 1438 88 3
VCDI 0 0 24 139 1046 9924 25796 36292
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81916 19012 3896 719 310 52 29 0
OW 79 549 338 379 343 91 8 0
VODI 2 207 257 418 605 353 16 0
ODI 0 66 131 262 467 447 17 0
CDI 0 21 59 219 611 877 67 8
VCDI 0 23 72 256 1393 10378 25808 36287

Date: 2022-11-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82083 19495 2176 811 299 44 12 0
OW 106 678 409 537 282 25 0 0
VODI 19 185 206 554 665 161 2 0
ODI 0 34 43 229 617 496 44 0
CDI 0 14 31 117 577 1319 202 2
VCDI 0 0 27 168 621 8799 26214 38745
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82098 19289 2117 796 338 46 23 0
OW 101 692 340 395 289 63 6 0
VODI 9 331 225 473 600 260 6 0
ODI 0 70 114 287 473 447 59 0
CDI 0 20 40 186 556 1077 193 5
VCDI 0 4 56 279 805 8951 26187 38742

Date: 2022-11-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79861 19186 3545 859 345 58 32 0
OW 80 771 681 511 308 56 3 0
VODI 11 269 245 539 559 133 3 0
ODI 0 73 42 250 699 317 10 0
CDI 0 29 22 106 668 881 292 7
VCDI 0 7 27 123 769 7106 29606 37959
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79844 18874 3697 857 365 56 32 0
OW 91 815 378 430 280 51 2 13
VODI 16 437 307 459 583 162 8 4
ODI 1 149 106 275 535 389 19 2
CDI 0 44 34 185 586 709 178 17
VCDI 0 16 40 182 999 7184 29707 37930


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