Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2022-11-10

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-11-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3650 8074 581 125 59 25 0 0
OW 43 457 242 239 101 81 0 0
VODI 19 145 112 213 212 279 4 0
ODI 2 70 71 206 293 346 4 0
CDI 0 32 25 164 441 701 40 0
VCDI 0 0 2 119 417 3445 7704 17123
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-11-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4753 6279 691 56 65 40 0 0
OW 116 552 76 58 35 44 0 0
VODI 93 459 201 163 200 166 1 0
ODI 18 55 82 172 213 362 4 0
CDI 1 58 69 174 358 622 52 0
VCDI 0 5 3 82 849 4363 13520 10756
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-11-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1901 10176 788 73 47 23 0 0
OW 95 203 148 140 34 25 0 0
VODI 42 48 70 179 137 48 11 0
ODI 18 17 52 138 298 150 8 0
CDI 1 11 22 120 401 620 169 0
VCDI 0 1 9 46 415 4409 13141 11632
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-11-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2206 9282 519 123 40 48 0 0
OW 8 349 167 143 62 18 6 0
VODI 8 291 127 244 115 21 34 0
ODI 0 78 27 102 247 88 44 0
CDI 7 19 18 77 354 368 45 4
VCDI 0 3 5 113 608 5436 12992 11420
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2205 9359 552 173 49 41 0 0
OW 10 301 153 136 73 23 3 0
VODI 7 247 102 191 114 24 32 0
ODI 0 92 25 109 241 99 50 0
CDI 7 20 25 77 329 393 91 5
VCDI 0 3 6 116 620 5399 12945 11419

Date: 2022-11-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3654 6435 1029 150 64 38 8 0
OW 1 304 205 259 68 13 14 0
VODI 0 233 109 185 205 31 28 0
ODI 0 155 127 140 170 108 33 0
CDI 0 106 25 47 215 351 53 0
VCDI 0 10 5 28 481 3365 18050 9364
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3651 6492 1083 227 70 40 6 0
OW 4 261 155 213 106 9 11 0
VODI 0 221 91 155 177 34 30 0
ODI 0 121 99 113 153 120 37 0
CDI 0 132 65 63 185 323 70 0
VCDI 0 16 7 38 512 3380 18032 9364

Date: 2022-11-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2432 7127 1281 192 51 55 0 0
OW 1 270 130 196 115 27 4 0
VODI 0 187 57 172 211 54 13 0
ODI 0 128 71 115 224 177 15 0
CDI 0 58 53 82 127 425 56 0
VCDI 0 10 10 84 290 2845 11926 16595
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2433 6945 1259 199 86 80 9 0
OW 0 308 147 197 100 29 9 0
VODI 0 286 53 136 186 79 39 0
ODI 0 140 26 73 121 138 43 0
CDI 0 69 74 99 160 237 61 0
VCDI 0 32 43 137 365 3020 11853 16595

Date: 2022-11-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 827 8252 1566 141 31 17 1 0
OW 11 347 184 235 66 8 1 0
VODI 0 187 78 249 171 17 2 0
ODI 0 67 61 186 220 61 2 0
CDI 0 32 29 230 433 197 8 0
VCDI 0 22 15 148 810 4296 11895 14763
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 808 8175 1564 214 143 36 2 0
OW 25 312 165 177 94 29 4 0
VODI 5 230 87 211 116 82 3 0
ODI 0 106 55 187 190 72 1 0
CDI 0 65 42 131 285 146 7 0
VCDI 0 19 20 269 903 4231 11892 14763

Date: 2022-11-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2458 5790 2117 228 68 13 0 0
OW 26 323 181 198 138 35 1 0
VODI 2 176 92 250 243 47 1 0
ODI 0 59 60 115 335 101 3 0
CDI 0 19 50 109 363 262 7 0
VCDI 0 5 10 158 1022 5688 13541 11572
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2407 5673 2035 236 122 114 3 0
OW 63 306 181 226 117 35 3 0
VODI 16 208 133 171 246 49 2 0
ODI 0 94 67 101 282 81 0 0
CDI 0 64 62 129 328 146 6 0
VCDI 0 27 32 195 1074 5721 13539 11572


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