Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-11-10

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-11-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87958 23117 1892 620 207 40 7 0
OW 59 722 546 933 841 172 11 0
VODI 19 233 168 328 552 784 22 0
ODI 2 115 96 273 428 887 186 0
CDI 0 78 48 220 647 1611 641 0
VCDI 0 74 51 215 683 6836 24989 29737
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-11-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88119 21530 1457 484 227 74 12 0
OW 143 753 315 840 422 128 6 0
VODI 93 538 247 409 1170 898 53 0
ODI 18 87 105 245 403 838 127 0
CDI 1 92 94 221 591 1303 522 0
VCDI 0 51 44 161 1251 10344 31064 21568
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-11-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84210 25393 2108 621 154 31 0 0
OW 121 285 256 413 289 44 2 0
VODI 42 74 120 379 560 230 15 0
ODI 18 31 79 209 705 729 39 0
CDI 1 27 39 158 666 2412 630 0
VCDI 0 2 28 99 543 7362 37127 20797
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-11-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78587 27435 4126 649 140 65 1 0
OW 35 482 396 496 248 28 8 0
VODI 8 330 201 497 434 120 36 0
ODI 0 88 65 213 599 343 58 0
CDI 7 19 36 174 735 1106 197 7
VCDI 0 3 8 151 845 9170 34134 24768
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78589 27494 4133 723 167 58 1 0
OW 34 446 393 403 231 40 5 0
VODI 7 290 187 494 431 131 34 0
ODI 0 104 56 215 577 358 71 0
CDI 7 20 54 173 696 1163 278 6
VCDI 0 3 9 172 899 9082 34045 24769

Date: 2022-11-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77705 26381 4552 433 166 88 20 0
OW 28 600 450 622 273 29 14 0
VODI 0 314 191 442 543 140 28 0
ODI 0 168 153 242 472 316 39 0
CDI 0 112 46 127 506 965 187 1
VCDI 0 15 22 73 774 6800 39721 23290
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77702 26405 4598 527 181 93 18 0
OW 31 564 393 526 285 30 11 0
VODI 0 327 186 434 490 154 31 0
ODI 0 131 128 222 459 334 43 0
CDI 0 142 83 147 463 930 254 1
VCDI 0 21 26 83 856 6797 39652 23290

Date: 2022-11-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83216 21806 2938 737 217 83 12 0
OW 29 352 326 623 249 37 4 0
VODI 0 249 148 467 544 136 15 0
ODI 0 134 100 243 685 339 21 0
CDI 0 58 66 130 587 936 172 2
VCDI 0 10 10 111 474 5494 30142 35146
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83217 21465 2730 648 241 107 21 0
OW 28 512 419 568 231 40 9 0
VODI 0 364 227 512 619 165 40 0
ODI 0 166 65 222 400 294 64 0
CDI 0 70 94 173 542 656 256 4
VCDI 0 32 53 188 723 5763 29976 35144

Date: 2022-11-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77907 24774 4592 716 201 42 2 0
OW 40 436 423 538 218 38 1 0
VODI 0 224 168 589 473 113 6 0
ODI 0 102 100 324 523 252 15 0
CDI 0 43 41 293 863 664 132 0
VCDI 0 22 17 183 1282 7508 30182 33001
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77888 24452 4498 690 304 64 3 0
OW 54 535 360 447 242 60 5 0
VODI 5 368 250 596 418 181 14 0
ODI 0 147 134 398 528 272 29 0
CDI 0 75 64 187 689 659 122 0
VCDI 0 24 35 325 1379 7381 30165 33001

Date: 2022-11-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76691 23585 6492 638 149 42 1 0
OW 55 458 501 487 251 44 1 0
VODI 2 242 274 562 482 88 1 0
ODI 0 81 137 405 606 194 3 0
CDI 0 31 75 296 711 649 83 0
VCDI 0 11 28 266 1784 10667 31912 28063
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76640 23379 6196 598 235 156 4 0
OW 92 481 491 443 212 54 3 0
VODI 16 307 404 448 516 125 2 0
ODI 0 128 237 349 541 245 11 0
CDI 0 75 118 404 702 545 96 38
VCDI 0 38 61 412 1777 10559 31885 28025


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