Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-11-03

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-10-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89752 25091 3148 804 657 325 2 0
OW 22 957 538 1042 599 599 13 0
VODI 17 240 174 674 1417 1076 27 0
ODI 0 45 60 211 951 1370 133 0
CDI 0 10 32 145 593 1944 577 0
VCDI 0 0 8 57 357 4847 22746 25788
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-10-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93264 20662 1853 1010 458 314 6 0
OW 28 750 426 1131 994 591 52 0
VODI 0 263 192 559 1051 1127 164 0
ODI 0 109 54 226 652 1737 361 0
CDI 0 70 41 163 442 1534 960 9
VCDI 0 62 81 126 529 4508 24770 25719
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-11-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86523 26068 3275 930 227 34 3 0
OW 51 366 410 599 265 127 5 0
VODI 11 215 179 793 599 353 18 0
ODI 0 60 57 394 960 992 61 0
CDI 0 22 51 113 1020 3262 600 33
VCDI 0 5 41 104 511 6042 26171 25498
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-11-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80601 30411 3156 745 329 37 6 0
OW 46 482 457 716 659 178 8 0
VODI 12 193 241 342 771 541 32 0
ODI 0 102 118 285 646 859 161 0
CDI 0 29 88 212 1023 1741 518 5
VCDI 0 11 132 183 839 7612 26580 25941
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80613 30432 3186 958 523 85 6 0
OW 37 457 441 497 453 172 7 0
VODI 9 189 208 321 791 526 15 0
ODI 0 107 123 288 671 840 171 0
CDI 0 30 108 231 968 1760 543 5
VCDI 0 13 126 188 861 7585 26563 25941

Date: 2022-11-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88877 21846 1142 455 204 70 22 0
OW 76 1078 482 777 783 167 23 0
VODI 38 296 203 442 770 755 50 0
ODI 11 67 77 210 366 910 183 0
CDI 0 104 65 162 507 1458 478 0
VCDI 0 37 32 115 716 9852 25945 27197
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88886 22030 1347 630 436 96 21 0
OW 74 754 287 613 686 268 18 0
VODI 41 431 185 425 635 809 68 0
ODI 1 72 87 207 330 817 94 0
CDI 0 102 61 148 547 1329 505 0
VCDI 0 39 34 138 712 9893 25995 27197

Date: 2022-11-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84002 25895 2152 517 186 29 0 0
OW 103 297 244 470 222 36 3 0
VODI 27 100 153 477 607 126 2 0
ODI 16 47 64 293 1162 788 12 0
CDI 0 29 17 82 785 2747 572 0
VCDI 0 31 56 66 378 8532 35160 20563
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83848 25114 2015 619 324 29 3 0
OW 128 379 236 338 682 256 3 0
VODI 120 557 186 340 896 1161 135 0
ODI 52 199 95 247 359 861 239 0
CDI 0 68 54 174 402 1398 517 0
VCDI 0 82 100 187 677 8553 34852 20563

Date: 2022-11-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84908 23018 3045 672 162 32 0 0
OW 80 461 329 377 293 51 1 0
VODI 31 172 151 390 488 198 33 0
ODI 17 51 64 194 619 478 58 0
CDI 5 24 60 181 610 1745 278 0
VCDI 0 9 32 136 605 8008 34321 24661
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84919 22164 2859 585 245 45 1 0
OW 85 510 231 327 360 144 8 0
VODI 21 360 226 357 465 1023 194 0
ODI 3 299 129 200 381 946 499 0
CDI 13 335 116 182 436 966 537 0
VCDI 0 67 120 299 890 7388 33452 24661

Date: 2022-11-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76405 28327 4579 515 214 82 13 0
OW 36 519 496 512 228 39 13 0
VODI 9 264 297 438 510 124 30 0
ODI 0 122 99 246 545 283 48 0
CDI 4 49 37 145 670 976 195 0
VCDI 0 7 16 127 930 8404 35063 25432
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76411 27915 4538 535 251 98 16 0
OW 36 634 302 362 265 79 26 0
VODI 3 328 266 408 541 402 87 0
ODI 0 87 144 291 541 720 333 0
CDI 4 132 70 162 436 1157 574 4
VCDI 0 192 204 225 1063 7452 34326 25428


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