Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - Asian sector

Bulletin date: 2022-10-27

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-10-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1818 6575 459 306 11 0 0 0
OW 1 659 369 520 180 6 0 0
VODI 0 157 168 649 682 157 0 0
ODI 0 3 18 255 620 458 8 0
CDI 0 0 3 105 467 1056 104 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 149 3348 11123 1642
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-10-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3311 4053 417 507 64 0 0 0
OW 13 690 403 533 258 31 0 0
VODI 0 74 206 600 682 315 15 0
ODI 0 3 15 219 520 655 84 0
CDI 0 0 3 93 350 1072 358 0
VCDI 0 0 0 15 147 2428 9709 4239
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-10-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3360 3306 474 550 43 0 0 0
OW 19 346 260 637 237 16 0 0
VODI 0 60 155 526 755 124 6 0
ODI 0 1 2 47 783 682 44 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 176 1586 376 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 59 1905 10998 4536
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-10-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21 4632 1038 218 251 37 0 0
OW 0 313 187 511 569 144 0 0
VODI 0 14 47 377 1048 459 11 0
ODI 0 0 0 29 504 896 74 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 207 1273 395 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 51 1480 9899 7396
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21 4761 1081 305 342 59 0 0
OW 0 187 163 486 483 132 0 0
VODI 0 11 28 302 947 410 9 0
ODI 0 0 0 38 540 807 64 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 261 1384 543 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 57 1497 9763 7396

Date: 2022-10-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 286 3881 621 176 17 81 0 0
OW 1 286 264 601 291 313 65 0
VODI 0 11 32 187 516 921 62 0
ODI 0 0 0 21 318 1101 268 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 64 967 762 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 25 1024 11528 7392
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 286 3953 712 423 63 109 6 0
OW 1 193 176 350 214 276 54 0
VODI 0 32 29 177 573 945 57 0
ODI 0 0 0 31 251 987 260 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 91 1052 848 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 39 1038 11460 7392

Date: 2022-10-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 134 4222 524 153 0 0 0 0
OW 2 82 115 384 34 1 0 0
VODI 0 3 8 265 287 80 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 30 437 512 51 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 133 2309 761 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 21 1131 12759 7643
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 134 4041 479 487 110 59 0 0
OW 2 242 165 252 288 245 43 0
VODI 0 24 3 90 272 645 128 0
ODI 0 0 0 3 179 1076 399 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 42 945 750 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 21 1063 12251 7643

Date: 2022-11-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 105 3262 680 269 19 0 0 0
OW 1 157 102 467 211 5 0 0
VODI 0 20 1 338 435 118 4 0
ODI 0 0 0 34 319 505 66 0
CDI 0 0 0 39 410 1203 377 12
VCDI 0 0 0 22 261 3204 13006 6430
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 105 3101 579 523 280 51 0 0
OW 1 313 204 479 343 174 2 0
VODI 0 25 0 99 343 571 65 0
ODI 0 0 0 20 290 779 252 1
CDI 0 0 0 34 246 948 655 40
VCDI 0 0 0 14 153 2512 12479 6401

Date: 2022-11-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 953 2117 188 133 15 0 0 0
OW 0 153 120 456 570 75 0 0
VODI 0 22 3 49 286 476 11 0
ODI 0 0 0 2 83 506 180 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 113 813 580 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 98 2146 13308 8626
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 953 2076 187 170 118 92 1 0
OW 0 188 118 431 653 442 101 0
VODI 0 28 6 38 189 696 278 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 98 622 439 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 97 864 936 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 10 1300 12324 8626


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