Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2022-10-27

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-10-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12259 5194 436 514 252 0 0 0
OW 18 677 220 468 315 14 0 0
VODI 0 274 79 337 485 105 0 0
ODI 0 24 44 228 511 328 0 0
CDI 0 4 23 102 283 637 36 0
VCDI 0 0 1 44 206 2512 7523 11713
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-10-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12386 3985 426 531 368 12 0 0
OW 2 660 224 471 458 40 0 0
VODI 0 199 217 296 729 148 0 0
ODI 0 13 49 153 316 342 0 0
CDI 0 0 21 95 309 728 14 0
VCDI 0 0 7 95 270 2311 9471 10520
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-10-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6062 9759 883 644 306 40 0 0
OW 32 299 139 414 303 11 0 0
VODI 0 50 77 274 652 52 0 0
ODI 0 4 3 80 685 423 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 36 409 998 44 0
VCDI 0 1 0 43 187 2428 8221 12306
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-10-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8953 5900 650 482 354 232 0 0
OW 18 448 214 501 216 71 0 0
VODI 13 128 102 322 553 114 0 0
ODI 0 11 11 145 592 216 0 0
CDI 0 3 1 57 456 781 27 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 253 2344 8392 13298
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8951 5979 672 570 364 229 0 0
OW 18 361 162 381 227 69 0 0
VODI 15 133 130 369 586 117 0 0
ODI 0 17 14 143 607 220 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 41 372 736 40 0
VCDI 0 0 0 11 268 2387 8379 13298

Date: 2022-10-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9078 4676 483 262 316 203 0 0
OW 22 351 299 638 505 127 2 0
VODI 16 153 118 313 590 246 3 0
ODI 7 20 32 148 415 370 27 0
CDI 0 0 0 111 327 574 50 0
VCDI 0 0 0 39 354 2343 7175 15473
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9068 4718 506 468 424 228 0 0
OW 34 322 267 420 412 118 1 0
VODI 20 142 123 316 597 265 5 0
ODI 1 18 35 168 399 399 24 0
CDI 0 0 1 101 296 548 45 0
VCDI 0 0 0 38 379 2305 7182 15473

Date: 2022-10-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7413 5739 480 266 121 10 0 0
OW 24 217 166 269 151 90 0 0
VODI 1 95 127 500 518 165 6 0
ODI 0 9 20 195 856 731 13 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 378 1429 127 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 122 2093 8680 14849
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7406 5625 459 365 291 221 1 0
OW 19 202 159 308 438 256 12 0
VODI 13 182 107 348 558 614 35 0
ODI 0 44 37 91 284 588 32 0
CDI 0 7 21 86 258 540 87 0
VCDI 0 0 10 38 317 2299 8659 14849

Date: 2022-11-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2632 8361 2163 185 75 11 0 0
OW 35 180 197 201 147 105 0 0
VODI 7 140 139 254 261 256 11 0
ODI 0 44 34 176 519 416 33 0
CDI 0 3 20 64 569 1112 113 0
VCDI 0 0 10 42 328 3057 7581 16385
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2626 8153 2006 203 108 139 4 0
OW 20 342 322 208 222 276 18 0
VODI 25 159 141 282 569 572 63 0
ODI 3 55 44 91 352 921 68 0
CDI 0 17 19 61 241 585 150 0
VCDI 0 2 31 77 407 2464 7435 16385

Date: 2022-11-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3650 8074 581 125 59 25 0 0
OW 43 457 242 239 101 81 0 0
VODI 19 145 112 213 212 279 4 0
ODI 2 70 71 206 293 346 4 0
CDI 0 32 25 164 441 701 40 0
VCDI 0 0 2 119 417 3445 7704 17123
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3649 7639 410 101 53 94 2 0
OW 43 464 124 159 100 148 2 0
VODI 17 504 380 339 413 476 14 0
ODI 0 122 74 229 470 988 94 0
CDI 5 42 33 104 208 810 147 9
VCDI 0 7 12 134 279 2361 7493 17114


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