Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-10-20

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-10-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 109233 21311 1108 909 300 64 0 0
OW 57 1069 562 1011 772 119 0 0
VODI 23 239 156 735 1353 957 20 0
ODI 0 65 63 144 767 1271 174 0
CDI 0 44 43 113 425 1945 570 0
VCDI 0 14 33 93 282 5728 28123 7153
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-10-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 105206 22837 1729 816 296 96 3 0
OW 25 1280 690 1211 718 128 2 0
VODI 21 270 229 847 1386 694 22 0
ODI 6 72 58 147 721 1459 170 0
CDI 0 20 57 106 411 2034 483 0
VCDI 0 9 12 81 328 5765 30495 6108
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-10-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 105223 21387 1626 947 433 51 0 0
OW 4 929 538 891 403 38 0 0
VODI 0 199 238 923 1216 252 1 0
ODI 0 59 42 270 1381 883 16 0
CDI 0 13 35 108 716 3182 437 0
VCDI 0 0 20 55 208 6628 27917 9779
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-10-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 100934 24037 1257 1000 360 38 1 0
OW 2 1346 623 927 411 32 0 0
VODI 0 442 374 1039 1233 168 0 0
ODI 0 88 96 541 1237 643 11 0
CDI 0 34 50 329 948 1701 193 6
VCDI 0 3 23 123 634 8224 25163 12777
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 100917 24442 1370 1077 410 42 1 0
OW 19 1023 495 805 357 11 0 0
VODI 0 375 392 1109 1255 194 3 0
ODI 0 91 102 592 1291 649 16 0
CDI 0 15 45 263 861 1750 221 5
VCDI 0 4 19 113 649 8160 25127 12778

Date: 2022-10-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 102134 20029 1895 1042 432 81 0 0
OW 19 1301 632 1145 853 77 6 0
VODI 0 436 420 836 1327 426 13 0
ODI 0 36 111 514 1070 893 72 0
CDI 0 12 50 305 733 1761 332 0
VCDI 0 2 22 141 621 5688 24065 17516
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 102129 20183 1978 1218 598 111 2 0
OW 24 1222 558 957 696 81 6 0
VODI 0 374 430 915 1356 414 16 0
ODI 0 23 91 512 1074 946 74 0
CDI 0 12 54 238 669 1779 340 0
VCDI 0 2 19 143 643 5595 24050 17516

Date: 2022-10-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 101666 20140 1656 982 368 65 0 0
OW 19 884 572 1021 307 69 0 0
VODI 0 188 284 1179 1219 213 1 0
ODI 0 11 45 290 1950 988 8 0
CDI 0 1 22 153 539 3515 384 0
VCDI 0 0 2 72 392 4498 22498 20847
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 101635 19697 1461 1078 587 205 1 0
OW 50 1085 600 807 501 163 1 0
VODI 0 411 375 1192 1487 762 26 0
ODI 0 28 82 246 1008 1170 108 0
CDI 0 2 50 192 567 1805 362 0
VCDI 0 1 13 182 625 5243 22393 20847

Date: 2022-10-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93091 25837 1599 1153 714 250 1 0
OW 13 666 565 1161 688 183 7 0
VODI 0 186 201 938 1487 423 27 0
ODI 0 12 65 194 1437 920 78 0
CDI 0 1 17 130 772 2349 510 0
VCDI 0 1 0 60 424 4645 22583 23660
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93049 25219 1495 1220 949 413 13 0
OW 51 1065 503 830 733 255 13 0
VODI 4 363 303 1063 1584 871 135 0
ODI 0 46 97 230 1185 1406 276 0
CDI 0 9 47 177 505 1573 719 0
VCDI 0 1 2 116 566 4252 22050 23660

Date: 2022-10-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89752 25091 3148 804 657 325 2 0
OW 22 957 538 1042 599 599 13 0
VODI 17 240 174 674 1417 1076 27 0
ODI 0 45 60 211 951 1370 133 0
CDI 0 10 32 145 593 1944 577 0
VCDI 0 0 8 57 357 4847 22746 25788
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89564 24872 3132 1038 905 580 12 0
OW 202 932 420 677 525 736 13 0
VODI 25 417 250 746 1437 1356 182 0
ODI 0 78 74 207 741 1698 501 0
CDI 0 35 39 126 476 1694 948 0
VCDI 0 9 45 139 490 4097 21842 25788


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