Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - Asian sector

Bulletin date: 2022-10-13

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-10-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5476 8378 928 134 0 0 0 0
OW 9 559 301 413 94 0 0 0
VODI 0 28 112 585 430 84 2 0
ODI 0 1 10 215 526 175 29 0
CDI 0 0 0 22 452 569 117 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 65 5211 7157 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-10-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5066 7573 419 285 37 0 0 0
OW 52 1079 268 409 260 28 0 0
VODI 11 171 104 390 630 222 0 0
ODI 0 10 28 84 533 413 2 0
CDI 0 0 4 49 276 648 82 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 72 3592 9268 17
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-10-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5118 7514 343 207 34 0 0 0
OW 5 704 343 445 143 0 0 0
VODI 0 69 75 471 584 63 0 0
ODI 0 2 7 68 678 406 8 0
CDI 0 0 1 20 309 1058 133 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 77 3216 8942 1039
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-10-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4870 6801 318 161 7 0 0 0
OW 35 580 340 533 253 14 0 0
VODI 17 79 75 491 846 328 4 0
ODI 0 1 13 40 454 613 25 0
CDI 0 0 3 32 212 782 296 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 71 1676 9269 2841
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4865 6774 366 304 79 1 0 0
OW 39 586 261 443 377 53 0 0
VODI 18 99 108 421 769 414 7 0
ODI 0 2 11 57 323 526 23 0
CDI 0 0 3 32 216 739 313 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 79 1680 9251 2841

Date: 2022-10-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3001 7778 602 94 5 0 0 0
OW 32 728 437 505 170 34 0 0
VODI 21 112 120 400 891 370 7 0
ODI 3 27 18 46 391 724 54 0
CDI 0 8 15 47 203 893 152 0
VCDI 0 0 5 38 169 3303 9973 706
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3001 7875 681 231 72 6 0 0
OW 17 536 314 399 228 103 0 0
VODI 34 206 162 363 925 499 12 0
ODI 5 28 19 49 237 606 71 0
CDI 0 8 13 46 195 800 177 0
VCDI 0 0 8 42 172 3310 9926 706

Date: 2022-10-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2163 8633 433 174 0 0 0 0
OW 14 449 252 410 41 3 0 0
VODI 14 68 134 594 460 37 0 0
ODI 12 11 8 123 703 433 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 34 283 1827 341 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 38 2651 11432 299
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2167 8273 372 261 50 33 0 0
OW 1 643 253 374 191 100 1 0
VODI 23 234 167 574 726 634 78 0
ODI 12 11 27 64 310 673 202 0
CDI 0 0 8 60 164 878 207 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 84 2633 11292 299

Date: 2022-10-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2236 7135 471 292 32 0 0 0
OW 1 483 340 527 174 10 0 0
VODI 0 78 131 592 620 164 5 0
ODI 0 18 8 140 516 543 10 0
CDI 0 3 0 15 340 1287 199 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 42 3058 12354 257
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2236 7010 493 459 139 11 0 0
OW 1 509 257 459 302 57 2 0
VODI 0 179 192 523 713 634 52 0
ODI 0 15 8 87 376 1084 113 0
CDI 0 4 0 38 138 943 316 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 56 2333 12085 257

Date: 2022-10-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1818 6575 459 306 11 0 0 0
OW 1 659 369 520 180 6 0 0
VODI 0 157 168 649 682 157 0 0
ODI 0 3 18 255 620 458 8 0
CDI 0 0 3 105 467 1056 104 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 149 3348 11123 1642
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1816 6534 525 405 96 12 0 0
OW 3 599 299 604 333 61 1 0
VODI 0 256 179 705 781 421 22 0
ODI 0 5 12 86 570 958 84 0
CDI 0 0 2 39 268 1073 150 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 61 2500 10978 1642


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