Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2022-10-13

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-10-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15861 7264 267 155 64 14 0 0
OW 75 413 213 299 77 0 0 0
VODI 0 75 121 482 276 10 0 0
ODI 0 3 21 341 475 80 1 0
CDI 0 0 6 150 708 504 64 0
VCDI 0 0 2 77 956 6164 9338 1310
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-10-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14958 7624 256 171 63 0 0 0
OW 118 559 336 332 92 2 0 0
VODI 6 96 158 428 438 75 0 0
ODI 0 6 24 201 462 218 0 0
CDI 0 0 7 124 645 511 16 0
VCDI 0 1 7 87 597 5721 11527 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-10-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11891 10237 639 455 101 16 0 0
OW 30 111 138 484 238 26 0 0
VODI 9 31 44 337 589 113 0 0
ODI 0 2 1 138 849 385 20 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 356 967 290 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 148 2169 13290 1757
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-10-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11770 9077 735 593 127 7 0 0
OW 20 220 169 458 432 40 0 0
VODI 3 36 32 224 705 323 2 0
ODI 0 1 2 65 448 598 31 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 412 1036 154 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 56 2408 12887 2790
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11754 9090 704 603 155 20 0 0
OW 32 225 184 407 352 23 0 0
VODI 7 16 48 247 713 281 4 0
ODI 0 3 2 80 426 594 21 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 425 969 204 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 109 2525 12845 2790

Date: 2022-10-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10578 8827 802 720 199 8 0 0
OW 23 295 153 593 497 87 0 0
VODI 13 56 22 185 556 539 7 0
ODI 0 0 4 35 255 721 75 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 91 1101 324 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 17 1845 13422 3813
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10549 8901 821 861 217 20 0 0
OW 45 227 132 452 384 50 0 0
VODI 20 50 25 188 655 510 0 0
ODI 0 0 3 32 227 720 71 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 111 1068 350 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 21 1933 13407 3813

Date: 2022-10-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9808 9018 702 354 111 0 0 0
OW 0 302 234 418 162 9 0 0
VODI 0 55 75 440 544 80 0 0
ODI 0 11 0 79 798 483 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 309 1494 202 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 31 1765 11203 7176
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9808 9020 690 580 354 76 0 0
OW 0 302 243 351 386 87 1 0
VODI 0 52 74 324 638 436 34 0
ODI 0 12 4 35 291 614 104 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 207 648 327 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 79 1970 10942 7176

Date: 2022-10-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10960 6897 580 688 211 14 0 0
OW 1 432 191 427 230 29 0 0
VODI 0 109 106 353 568 97 0 0
ODI 0 1 19 238 530 302 3 0
CDI 0 0 2 94 326 1046 81 2
VCDI 0 0 0 1 103 2998 8644 9583
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10961 7155 634 806 249 19 0 0
OW 0 253 200 547 301 44 0 0
VODI 0 31 51 360 759 380 14 0
ODI 0 0 13 66 355 629 27 0
CDI 0 0 0 22 203 766 172 15
VCDI 0 0 0 0 101 2648 8515 9570

Date: 2022-10-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12259 5194 436 514 252 0 0 0
OW 18 677 220 468 315 14 0 0
VODI 0 274 79 337 485 105 0 0
ODI 0 24 44 228 511 328 0 0
CDI 0 4 23 102 283 637 36 0
VCDI 0 0 1 44 206 2512 7523 11713
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12270 5530 518 615 310 4 0 0
OW 7 515 166 480 340 22 0 0
VODI 0 92 72 387 677 207 2 0
ODI 0 29 23 114 374 653 17 0
CDI 0 5 21 66 208 750 106 108
VCDI 0 2 3 31 143 1960 7434 11605


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