Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-10-13

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-10-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 116637 19879 1353 372 113 14 0 0
OW 84 1145 595 746 174 0 0 0
VODI 0 198 321 1152 726 97 2 0
ODI 0 43 78 637 1065 260 30 0
CDI 0 23 54 306 1339 1113 181 0
VCDI 0 0 4 117 1391 13424 21706 1669
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-10-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 114444 19725 1152 548 165 15 0 0
OW 170 1775 710 775 372 31 0 0
VODI 17 353 351 874 1104 300 0 0
ODI 0 62 116 335 1044 641 2 0
CDI 0 33 93 238 1023 1187 98 0
VCDI 0 1 55 212 999 11825 25969 234
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-10-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 111293 22681 1132 856 261 82 0 0
OW 35 898 525 955 400 31 0 0
VODI 9 176 160 871 1205 182 0 0
ODI 0 45 35 258 1570 809 29 0
CDI 0 36 40 98 792 2111 427 0
VCDI 0 0 5 34 360 7334 27114 4199
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-10-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 110292 21271 1258 937 236 45 0 0
OW 55 933 541 1028 694 61 0 0
VODI 20 230 143 760 1585 655 6 0
ODI 0 69 55 139 942 1222 56 0
CDI 0 69 38 97 695 1888 468 0
VCDI 0 13 43 82 277 5678 27122 7345
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 110271 21276 1286 1106 337 60 0 0
OW 71 937 475 880 744 82 0 0
VODI 25 215 188 713 1512 699 11 0
ODI 0 72 50 168 785 1132 44 0
CDI 0 71 37 102 716 1786 536 0
VCDI 0 14 42 74 335 5790 27061 7345

Date: 2022-10-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 104770 24114 1642 929 347 77 0 0
OW 55 1138 646 1169 680 134 0 0
VODI 34 232 201 643 1502 913 14 0
ODI 3 59 62 139 697 1474 129 0
CDI 0 31 47 117 379 2085 497 0
VCDI 0 2 27 108 333 6620 28739 6260
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 104741 24299 1747 1219 429 99 0 0
OW 62 859 500 919 634 162 0 0
VODI 54 326 243 607 1636 1017 12 0
ODI 5 58 56 137 510 1352 142 0
CDI 0 32 46 107 397 1959 552 0
VCDI 0 2 33 116 332 6714 28673 6260

Date: 2022-10-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97412 30390 1718 674 280 65 0 0
OW 14 852 541 884 235 27 0 0
VODI 14 171 269 1119 1063 129 0 0
ODI 12 40 42 275 1572 962 10 0
CDI 0 12 27 103 710 3506 552 0
VCDI 0 0 4 18 150 5418 28891 8887
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97416 29978 1657 1010 594 191 0 0
OW 1 1046 540 774 618 199 2 0
VODI 23 364 273 964 1416 1099 112 0
ODI 12 56 65 150 652 1318 307 0
CDI 0 19 47 120 471 1661 544 0
VCDI 0 2 19 55 259 5639 28488 8887

Date: 2022-10-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 101096 24047 1739 1119 450 58 2 0
OW 2 986 615 1007 426 58 0 0
VODI 0 225 322 1029 1239 275 5 0
ODI 0 29 64 454 1123 870 13 0
CDI 0 12 17 181 773 2433 286 2
VCDI 0 6 10 57 305 8044 27247 10422
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 101097 24154 1789 1406 602 89 2 0
OW 1 827 545 1060 622 115 2 0
VODI 0 257 330 952 1536 1024 66 0
ODI 0 29 62 224 792 1738 140 0
CDI 0 19 25 132 431 1804 495 15
VCDI 0 19 16 73 333 6968 26848 10409

Date: 2022-10-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 102400 21226 1702 916 378 69 0 0
OW 19 1413 674 1044 518 38 5 0
VODI 0 481 333 1050 1209 268 0 0
ODI 0 34 114 553 1189 800 8 0
CDI 0 14 55 291 852 1745 144 0
VCDI 0 2 12 129 574 6810 22981 16998
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 102409 21471 1837 1118 538 102 5 0
OW 10 1204 552 1139 692 88 1 0
VODI 0 403 339 1161 1498 631 24 0
ODI 0 52 76 270 996 1624 101 0
CDI 0 18 57 158 563 1880 261 108
VCDI 0 22 29 137 433 5405 22746 16890


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