Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2022-10-06

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-09-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17344 6038 372 409 220 33 0 0
OW 9 335 148 319 311 52 0 0
VODI 0 42 64 281 591 142 9 0
ODI 0 2 4 83 569 317 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 360 900 106 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 109 6154 10469 54
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-10-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16684 6096 381 310 180 5 0 0
OW 8 490 235 366 346 21 0 0
VODI 0 51 56 344 599 109 9 0
ODI 0 3 11 93 570 373 14 0
CDI 0 0 0 20 212 924 63 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 98 4596 12149 448
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-10-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15872 7066 511 492 101 0 0 0
OW 2 107 121 319 172 10 0 0
VODI 0 27 36 249 501 61 0 0
ODI 0 4 7 51 724 292 9 0
CDI 0 0 0 20 460 1070 113 0
VCDI 0 0 0 10 47 3670 13372 370
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-10-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13663 8453 1134 241 79 0 0 0
OW 47 303 195 335 102 2 0 0
VODI 0 39 90 406 379 40 0 0
ODI 0 4 7 126 611 230 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 18 506 940 95 0
VCDI 0 0 0 18 44 4404 11543 1808
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13687 8534 1169 275 95 0 0 0
OW 23 226 164 294 84 2 0 0
VODI 0 39 87 417 385 40 0 0
ODI 0 0 5 118 655 318 8 0
CDI 0 0 1 23 454 927 87 0
VCDI 0 0 0 17 48 4329 11547 1808

Date: 2022-10-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16577 6289 259 149 72 0 0 0
OW 117 581 243 315 102 1 0 0
VODI 4 79 122 414 378 40 0 0
ODI 0 2 23 298 464 132 0 0
CDI 0 0 7 115 846 348 38 0
VCDI 0 0 8 74 961 7288 9520 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16666 6309 268 167 76 0 0 0
OW 25 537 207 257 55 1 0 0
VODI 7 104 150 421 384 55 0 0
ODI 0 1 20 320 545 144 2 0
CDI 0 0 6 99 778 380 54 0
VCDI 0 0 11 101 985 7229 9502 0

Date: 2022-10-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14747 7917 483 278 87 10 0 0
OW 20 142 231 445 105 0 0 0
VODI 12 26 56 523 517 49 15 0
ODI 0 2 0 136 1028 343 26 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 299 1198 158 0
VCDI 0 0 1 15 200 2961 12786 1039
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14746 7496 309 210 110 10 0 0
OW 20 516 290 284 77 8 0 0
VODI 13 73 155 598 481 165 0 0
ODI 0 2 14 190 595 272 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 65 513 655 55 0
VCDI 0 0 2 61 460 3451 12930 1039

Date: 2022-10-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11594 9990 622 509 94 9 0 0
OW 29 176 170 479 371 25 0 0
VODI 4 39 52 233 687 155 2 0
ODI 0 0 2 94 741 437 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 492 973 108 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 107 2146 12972 2535
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11562 9627 467 362 114 29 0 0
OW 51 453 231 370 159 14 0 0
VODI 14 124 134 436 692 157 2 0
ODI 0 1 14 118 580 449 21 0
CDI 0 0 0 29 526 638 105 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 421 2458 12966 2535

Date: 2022-10-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11505 8564 736 652 155 8 0 0
OW 22 255 189 540 505 48 0 0
VODI 2 43 30 199 616 488 10 0
ODI 0 2 1 40 310 670 71 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 216 1093 283 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 24 1860 13460 3268
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11422 8153 613 567 158 14 0 0
OW 64 583 222 410 236 49 1 0
VODI 42 109 118 370 640 256 12 0
ODI 1 19 3 84 451 628 85 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 237 866 321 4
VCDI 0 0 0 1 104 2354 13405 3264


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