Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2022-09-22

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-09-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17646 8232 731 399 47 9 0 0
OW 12 291 339 379 79 6 0 0
VODI 0 42 110 738 431 37 0 0
ODI 0 2 4 319 869 473 6 0
CDI 0 2 0 10 444 2168 546 0
VCDI 0 6 0 12 24 2866 8143 444
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-09-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18710 7080 494 342 41 0 0 0
OW 0 498 305 370 166 13 0 0
VODI 0 126 145 700 447 113 0 0
ODI 0 1 14 312 485 525 21 0
CDI 0 3 1 26 345 1701 590 0
VCDI 0 4 3 8 10 2198 8920 1149
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-09-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18669 6959 776 602 102 1 0 0
OW 0 144 240 399 172 13 0 0
VODI 0 15 60 540 590 80 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 109 686 248 2 0
CDI 0 2 0 19 167 1681 152 0
VCDI 0 5 0 17 48 1866 10112 1389
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-09-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18582 6697 657 505 120 30 8 0
OW 1 370 252 502 132 2 0 0
VODI 0 11 67 694 502 47 0 0
ODI 0 0 3 138 653 199 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 22 250 1315 245 0
VCDI 0 5 1 20 32 1441 10849 1509
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18583 6825 707 534 152 30 8 0
OW 0 241 220 420 93 3 0 0
VODI 0 12 51 675 419 53 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 220 681 175 9 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 277 1176 243 0
VCDI 0 5 1 20 67 1597 10847 1509

Date: 2022-09-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18354 6069 450 598 174 6 1 0
OW 2 636 225 369 352 22 0 0
VODI 0 52 68 478 601 92 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 98 648 353 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 239 1102 82 0
VCDI 0 5 1 3 93 4509 9837 345
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18355 6244 485 644 273 6 0 0
OW 1 460 167 339 225 20 1 0
VODI 0 53 91 445 589 69 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 115 650 300 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 278 968 80 0
VCDI 0 5 1 5 92 4721 9839 345

Date: 2022-09-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18017 6185 517 639 74 2 0 0
OW 1 75 93 427 187 14 1 0
VODI 0 72 54 338 535 104 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 71 919 296 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 197 1409 103 0
VCDI 0 2 1 1 22 5058 10121 329
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18018 5714 373 554 178 60 1 0
OW 0 497 189 396 301 86 0 0
VODI 0 121 97 442 483 183 0 0
ODI 0 1 5 83 718 349 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 229 752 86 0
VCDI 0 2 1 2 25 5453 10126 329

Date: 2022-09-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17469 6177 397 395 190 182 0 0
OW 0 186 102 305 251 191 0 0
VODI 0 22 32 202 589 299 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 24 417 646 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 160 916 364 0
VCDI 0 1 1 4 23 5339 10946 24
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17469 5592 219 255 249 298 0 0
OW 0 530 115 213 374 258 3 0
VODI 0 263 193 371 359 379 46 0
ODI 0 1 4 89 490 508 87 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 135 739 306 0
VCDI 0 1 1 4 23 5391 10874 24

Date: 2022-09-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17344 6038 372 409 220 33 0 0
OW 9 335 148 319 311 52 0 0
VODI 0 42 64 281 591 142 9 0
ODI 0 2 4 83 569 317 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 360 900 106 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 109 6154 10469 54
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17343 5309 193 267 486 123 0 0
OW 10 664 151 147 311 66 8 0
VODI 0 383 191 358 425 411 29 0
ODI 0 61 53 307 357 377 51 0
CDI 0 0 0 24 426 527 236 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 155 6094 10266 54


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